AI · resolved market
Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1c5115ac5644494c72d3ff2065eaab07b33a8ecb84c23aa1b1e12d233e526dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,340
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b4f…3b33backed Yes | 13c | 730$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.9 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…85cdbacked Yes | 12c | 633$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.96 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes | 12c | 574$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 14c | 543$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.02 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x728b…fd3ebacked Yes | 17c | 522.92$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…cfefbacked Yes | 14c | 519$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.47 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.38per pick | 49cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8465…6cd7backed Yes | 12c | 487$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 29cpaid | +102%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…0959backed Yes | 12c | 460$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…2867backed Yes | 12c | 399$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9279…9ca7backed Yes | 12c | 398$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9818…7cd3backed Yes | 14c | 383$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.62 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b37…6962backed Yes | 20c | 363$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.86 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…a002backed Yes | 11c | 351$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +31%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…b54dbacked Yes | 11c | 344$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 7c | 322.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed Yes | 12c | 318$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +5.5wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…e898backed Yes | 15c | 313$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +123%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x87e7…d0b5backed Yes | 10c | 295.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed Yes | 12c | 273$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…0da3backed Yes | 12c | 219$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7808…d645backed Yes | 16c | 193.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…1598backed Yes | 12c | 193$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…e50fbacked Yes | 12c | 168$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 79.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…a0ddbacked Yes | 30c | 67.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 78c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae1…92f2backed No | 76c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on Humanity’s Last Exam?this page
- Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes won
- Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes won
- Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No won
- Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.