AI · resolved market
Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9433d34141259f588c2ba0bd529911e027dca95a94386e317ebd87a14bb234c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,699
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x87e7…d0b5backed Yes | 8c | 1,987$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.16 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2552…73d2backed Yes | 22c | 1,628$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.34 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed No | 78c | 1,325$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.5 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d24…a2e9backed No | 80c | 1,278$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.05 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…9a60backed Yes | 14c | 1,250$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…c83bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,216$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.88 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked Yes | 12c | 1,193$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.16 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 76c | 1,148$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.57 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd824…528bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,128$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.04 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…67fbbacked Yes | 12c | 1,098$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.76 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 51cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0aec…fdafbacked Yes | 31c | 1,098$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.38 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…83e5backed Yes | 22c | 975$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed Yes | 22c | 945$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.9 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06d8…4c30backed Yes | 23c | 944$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed Yes | 18c | 930$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.4 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 74c | 905.08$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.77 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc35e…d368backed Yes | 22c | 877.78$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.1 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e5…d252backed Yes | 13c | 864$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.32 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d03…ef8ebacked Yes | 22c | 854$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.88 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…72f1backed Yes | 18c | 805$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.9 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x117f…088ebacked Yes | 18c | 804$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.72 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed Yes | 22c | 780$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.6 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…02c0backed Yes | 13c | 772$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.36 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa78e…74b0backed Yes | 22c | 762$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.64 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6951…cb02backed Yes | 18c | 760$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4f…3b33backed Yes | 14c | 698$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.72 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7086…f376backed Yes | 13c | 696$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f5…8e1ebacked No | 76c | 684$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.16 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d9…bacbbacked Yes | 22c | 637$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.14 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f87…3929backed No | 77c | 635$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked No | 78c | 623$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.06 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c5…2dacbacked Yes | 23c | 610$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1100…815ebacked Yes | 12c | 587$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.44 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf351…6284backed No | 78c | 561$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.42 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 22c | 561$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.42 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b32…c8a9backed No | 69c | 560$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a7…6569backed Yes | 14c | 554$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked No | 78c | 523$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.06 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ab…edc1backed No | 78c | 517$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.74 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4657…00d6backed Yes | 24c | 513$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca3…9546backed Yes | 22c | 507$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.54 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8feb…8908backed No | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.47 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed Yes | 22c | 492$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.24 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed No | 77c | 486$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.78 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 14c | 467.14$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…1598backed No | 77c | 436$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.28 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed Yes | 23c | 436$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.28 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked No | 78c | 420$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc911…fa2bbacked No | 77c | 409$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.07 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadbd…93f9backed No | 77c | 391$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.93 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +5.2wins | +0.35per pick | 52cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1220…741abacked No | 78c | 390$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf49…6cfebacked Yes | 13c | 367$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +4.7wins | +0.29per pick | 52cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…a617backed No | 78c | 351$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.22 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…990ebacked No | 69c | 350$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.5 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Yes | 14c | 339$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3662…ca07backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed No | 78c | 286$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.92 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x541a…1740backed Yes | 22c | 286$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…e6aabacked Yes | 22c | 285$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa756…b167backed Yes | 22c | 255$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcabd…3764backed Yes | 13c | 251$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5661…ef17backed No | 78c | 247$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…e5a3backed No | 78c | 231$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.82 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…28eabacked Yes | 23c | 229$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.67 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…9964backed Yes | 22c | 228$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…2cdbbacked No | 78c | 228$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…0657backed No | 78c | 217$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.74 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…095ebacked Yes | 23c | 198$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1577…4b52backed Yes | 13c | 188.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +366.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a5…b42cbacked No | 78c | 178$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…f8fbbacked Yes | 24c | 171$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 31c | 162.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked No | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2566…7d60backed Yes | 22c | 147$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a79…1ccbbacked No | 77c | 144$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…44acbacked No | 78c | 141$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…2e4abacked No | 78c | 131$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 62cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2aea…6ee3backed Yes | 16c | 128.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…aa07backed Yes | 22c | 127$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…c6fbbacked No | 77c | 124$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x523d…cc1dbacked No | 78c | 111$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 13c | 99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 22c | 97.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | -145.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 36c | 91.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked Yes | 15c | 86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 38c | 80.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…a888backed No | 78c | 76.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 78c | 76.57$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…3258backed No | 78c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7808…d645backed Yes | 34c | 73.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x911b…a7febacked Yes | 44c | 68.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 18c | 65.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 31c | 50.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42fc…4927backed No | 78c | 44.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 76c | 36.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 67 | 83.6%56 W · 11 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 76c | 32.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc289…fedabacked Yes | 31c | 32.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 30cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 42c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x138a…8197backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?this page
- Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes won
- Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes won
- Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No won
- Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.