TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$147,080
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$139,116

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $147,080 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 318 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes34c4,903$1,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,668.735016%8 W · 42 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-60.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7db2…1c02backed Yes2c2,138$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes2c2,100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No43c1,763$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,012.9310126.7%27 W · 74 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed Yes20c1,645$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.3811723.9%28 W · 89 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6546…c454backed No28c1,588$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,143.361478.6%11 W · 3 L+4.3wins+0.31per pick48cpaid+142.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd98f…5afdbacked Yes42c1,481$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.021127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick48cpaid-36.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd553…6af5backed Yes60c1,412$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$846.251233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1100…815ebacked Yes39c1,214$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.46825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5383…88f0backed Yes28c1,184$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.521850%9 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1502…be53backed Yes72c1,165$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.82828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-2.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcf8…0657backed No28c1,158$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$833.762462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7289…4bffbacked No28c1,156$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.321241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f51…c63cbacked No28c1,143$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.96757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+112.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ff1…85cdbacked Yes35c1,126$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.11729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.4wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-51.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes65c1,112$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.874360.5%26 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ceb…7fc8backed Yes72c1,111$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.92366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+44%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06a0…cae1backed No45c1,111$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.01955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick36cpaid+59.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9bd…4d4cbacked Yes72c1,010$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.21050%5 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8ae…bb88backed No28c1,009$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.482138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-25.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec88…09cebacked Yes41c1,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d41…7675backed No59c1,000$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4101100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8669…7111backed Yes72c981$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.32837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaaf5…95adbacked Yes67c964.09$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.171225%3 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f0f…98e8backed Yes72c963$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.361216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.5wins-0.29per pick46cpaid-47.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0b4f…3b33backed No49c957$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.051560%9 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+80.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7bd4…c334backed Yes22c952$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.44825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2247…96e8backed No28c934$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.481330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+31.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes2c921.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7726312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Yes11c909.07$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100593.4%2 W · 57 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick9cpaid-94.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5322…95e1backed Yes25c885$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.25933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+52.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes4c883.32$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.33591.7%1 W · 58 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc336…9f48backed No28c880$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.61546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+32.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x557a…9f70backed Yes72c864$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.081968.4%13 W · 6 L+5.5wins+0.29per pick40cpaid+93.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x9279…9ca7backed Yes72c861$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.921936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6789…52f9backed No28c854$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.881625%4 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b63…bb9cbacked Yes33c852$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.161747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+53%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42b9…ded7backed Yes22c836.48$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.793925.6%10 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-45.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb9e…cb81backed Yes2c800$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea5a…e6aebacked No72c797$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.161764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+46%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6b8…0137backed No67c772$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.761637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x64c2…c527backed Yes72c771$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.121346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+34.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33dc…a539backed Yes35c748$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.8728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa04f…15babacked No64c748$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.28450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04bc…5377backed Yes47c745.15$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x23b9…6447backed No28c742$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.241145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5829…e46bbacked No75c741$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.25837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-49.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xabeb…7a78backed Yes72c739$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.082035%7 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick45cpaid0%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f5c…91bfbacked No76c733$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.861346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+31%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4889…90e9backed Yes45c718.58$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.53450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66f2…2badbacked No58c710$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.21258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick39cpaid+87.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x29e2…6dc5backed Yes41c706$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.46633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b72…cd8ebacked Yes72c700$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5041942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d38…2078backed No36c693.46$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.124032.5%13 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ed7…b0a5backed Yes36c687$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.322857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x99ab…edc1backed Yes21c686$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.061540%6 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-42.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a10…e442backed No64c684$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.241553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7302…52a2backed Yes74c669.97$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3684…9669backed Yes72c669$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.681631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-31.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x968f…a539backed No78c669$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.182441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa680…c13fbacked Yes72c666$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.52666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa44b…eb27backed No28c658$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.761338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5fa…f3f8backed No28c643$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.961457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+59.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb593…28eabacked No28c641$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.522441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c2e…e025backed No65c627$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.452161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+20.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes19c626.53$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.394012.5%5 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-52.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e77…3273backed No61c611$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.29850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82a7…afb5backed No28c611$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.921464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick46cpaid+50.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No69c604.72$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.0214643.8%64 W · 82 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50e8…ac57backed Yes35c601$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.352045%9 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39b4…3258backed Yes72c601$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.721540%6 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+65.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9677…78e9backed Yes34c600.59$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205850%4 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-26.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes18c589.78$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.256123%14 W · 47 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-43.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d4d…b46ebacked Yes72c585$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.22231.8%7 W · 15 L-3.1wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x59a3…961abacked Yes34c583.96$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.5130%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x90e2…7babbacked Yes38c570$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.61631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8383…75b7backed No58c568$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.561560%9 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+68.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x965d…7773backed No41c566$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.942040%8 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc911…fa2bbacked No28c565$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.8862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ece…35e8backed Yes59c552$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.681457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+63.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa347…2a40backed Yes59c550$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.52520%5 W · 20 L-5.8wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-71.4%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x4e42…49edbacked Yes24c546$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.571421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick46cpaid-70.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4bb8…eea6backed No41c536$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.241553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+47%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6787…8884backed No64c517$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.121233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-48.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0b1…4336backed No28c516$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.52633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca87…3701backed Yes72c515$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.81540%6 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5885…6562backed No28c513$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.361553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+45.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes72c506$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.322737%10 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf48…6f13backed Yes60c500$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.531136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x466e…ed99backed Yes37c498$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.261921.1%4 W · 15 L-3.3wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-55.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd29f…26b4backed No62c498$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.241457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+47.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe70…e8e9backed No28c484$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.481050%5 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+53.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1dd8…757abacked No28c480$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.61637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid+9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7a8…7efabacked No78c477$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.941181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.7wins+0.34per pick48cpaid+88.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2b48…819dbacked Yes31c469.64$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.62425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-65.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab21…4b87backed Yes72c469$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.681526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5cbe…04b4backed Yes72c463$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.36425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-49%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No58c452.77$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.2220148.8%98 W · 103 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5485…ae4abacked Yes46c446.53$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.351040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-40.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16a0…72f1backed Yes72c428$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.162263.6%14 W · 8 L+3.9wins+0.18per pick46cpaid+40.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.