AI · resolved market
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3cab2f3af130343883de0775b4d6098dc79a03767bf3c6aae396d20e42012d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $147,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $139,116
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $147,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 318 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes | 34c | 4,903$1,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,668.73 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db2…1c02backed Yes | 2c | 2,138$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 2,100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 43c | 1,763$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012.93 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 20c | 1,645$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.38 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…c454backed No | 28c | 1,588$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,143.36 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.3wins | +0.31per pick | 48cpaid | +142.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd98f…5afdbacked Yes | 42c | 1,481$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.02 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd553…6af5backed Yes | 60c | 1,412$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1100…815ebacked Yes | 39c | 1,214$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.46 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…88f0backed Yes | 28c | 1,184$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.52 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed Yes | 72c | 1,165$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.8 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…0657backed No | 28c | 1,158$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.76 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…4bffbacked No | 28c | 1,156$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.32 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f51…c63cbacked No | 28c | 1,143$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…85cdbacked Yes | 35c | 1,126$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.1 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes | 65c | 1,112$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.87 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ceb…7fc8backed Yes | 72c | 1,111$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a0…cae1backed No | 45c | 1,111$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.01 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…4d4cbacked Yes | 72c | 1,010$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed No | 28c | 1,009$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.48 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec88…09cebacked Yes | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d41…7675backed No | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8669…7111backed Yes | 72c | 981$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…95adbacked Yes | 67c | 964.09$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.17 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…98e8backed Yes | 72c | 963$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.36 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4f…3b33backed No | 49c | 957$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.05 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd4…c334backed Yes | 22c | 952$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.44 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2247…96e8backed No | 28c | 934$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.48 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 921.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 11c | 909.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 3.4%2 W · 57 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…95e1backed Yes | 25c | 885$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 4c | 883.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed No | 28c | 880$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…9f70backed Yes | 72c | 864$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.08 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +5.5wins | +0.29per pick | 40cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9279…9ca7backed Yes | 72c | 861$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.92 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…52f9backed No | 28c | 854$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.88 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b63…bb9cbacked Yes | 33c | 852$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.16 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed Yes | 22c | 836.48$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.79 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9e…cb81backed Yes | 2c | 800$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked No | 72c | 797$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.16 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +46%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…0137backed No | 67c | 772$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.76 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed Yes | 72c | 771$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.12 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…a539backed Yes | 35c | 748$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04f…15babacked No | 64c | 748$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04bc…5377backed Yes | 47c | 745.15$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23b9…6447backed No | 28c | 742$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5829…e46bbacked No | 75c | 741$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabeb…7a78backed Yes | 72c | 739$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.08 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked No | 76c | 733$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.86 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…90e9backed Yes | 45c | 718.58$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66f2…2badbacked No | 58c | 710$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29e2…6dc5backed Yes | 41c | 706$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…cd8ebacked Yes | 72c | 700$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d38…2078backed No | 36c | 693.46$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.12 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed Yes | 36c | 687$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.32 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99ab…edc1backed Yes | 21c | 686$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.06 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…e442backed No | 64c | 684$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.24 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7302…52a2backed Yes | 74c | 669.97$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3684…9669backed Yes | 72c | 669$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.68 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed No | 78c | 669$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.18 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa680…c13fbacked Yes | 72c | 666$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed No | 28c | 658$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.76 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed No | 28c | 643$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.96 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…28eabacked No | 28c | 641$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.52 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed No | 65c | 627$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.45 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 19c | 626.53$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.39 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e77…3273backed No | 61c | 611$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.29 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…afb5backed No | 28c | 611$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.92 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 69c | 604.72$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.02 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed Yes | 35c | 601$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.35 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…3258backed Yes | 72c | 601$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.72 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9677…78e9backed Yes | 34c | 600.59$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 18c | 589.78$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.25 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…b46ebacked Yes | 72c | 585$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.2 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59a3…961abacked Yes | 34c | 583.96$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…7babbacked Yes | 38c | 570$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.6 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…75b7backed No | 58c | 568$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.56 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed No | 41c | 566$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.94 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc911…fa2bbacked No | 28c | 565$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…35e8backed Yes | 59c | 552$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.68 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed Yes | 59c | 550$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.5 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -5.8wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4e42…49edbacked Yes | 24c | 546$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.57 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 46cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb8…eea6backed No | 41c | 536$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.24 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +47%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…8884backed No | 64c | 517$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.12 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b1…4336backed No | 28c | 516$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca87…3701backed Yes | 72c | 515$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…6562backed No | 28c | 513$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.36 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes | 72c | 506$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.32 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf48…6f13backed Yes | 60c | 500$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.53 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x466e…ed99backed Yes | 37c | 498$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.26 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd29f…26b4backed No | 62c | 498$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.24 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…e8e9backed No | 28c | 484$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…757abacked No | 28c | 480$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a8…7efabacked No | 78c | 477$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.94 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.34per pick | 48cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b48…819dbacked Yes | 31c | 469.64$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab21…4b87backed Yes | 72c | 469$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.68 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbe…04b4backed Yes | 72c | 463$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 58c | 452.77$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.22 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5485…ae4abacked Yes | 46c | 446.53$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.35 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…72f1backed Yes | 72c | 428$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.16 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?this page
- Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?Yes won
- Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
- Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
- Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
- Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.