AI · resolved market
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c33d641c4097c980aa495e842e5744db2a7b20ad48c3ddf6014544e4eae6fb9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $294,290
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $303,954
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $294,290 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 362 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c0a…ad2fbacked No | 27c | 65,962$17,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,809.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x041f…fd1bbacked Yes | 73c | 23,162$16,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,253.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12c4…8557backed Yes | 73c | 21,601$15,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,832.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ac…3a81backed Yes | 73c | 21,199$15,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,723.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 69c | 5,326$3,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,631.07 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 0c | 3,600$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 60c | 2,872$1,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,143.36 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes | 38c | 2,629$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,631.74 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04f…15babacked No | 55c | 2,005$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 24c | 1,477$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.92 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed Yes | 52c | 1,476$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.35 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 1c | 1,312$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…44a9backed Yes | 18c | 1,309$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91ba…c705backed Yes | 36c | 1,294$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…0657backed Yes | 64c | 1,249$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.84 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05f2…95debacked Yes | 19c | 1,140$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.4 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 4c | 1,078$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…095ebacked Yes | 46c | 1,073$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.94 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 2c | 1,053$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…4248backed Yes | 78c | 1,030$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb993…6e3abacked Yes | 45c | 1,001$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.55 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6cdbbacked Yes | 67c | 958.88$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.97 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…8919backed No | 56c | 956$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.7 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9151backed No | 54c | 951$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.54 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f52…a35abacked Yes | 13c | 947$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.89 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +132.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…e974backed Yes | 53c | 941$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.27 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabeb…7a78backed No | 47c | 941$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.27 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes | 74c | 929.44$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.14 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 896.74$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.18 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcabd…3764backed Yes | 11c | 892$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.88 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0285…59d6backed No | 68c | 859$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db2…1c02backed No | 2c | 850$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed Yes | 42c | 834$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.72 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae0…4590backed Yes | 13c | 805$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.35 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed Yes | 17c | 796$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.68 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…a2debacked Yes | 11c | 768$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.73 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0956…9aa4backed Yes | 51c | 764$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.36 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed No | 49c | 764$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.36 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 59c | 743.76$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.77 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf53c…00acbacked Yes | 68c | 742$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.44 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…b7c8backed No | 9c | 738.8$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 37c | 737.53$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…7359backed Yes | 55c | 709$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.05 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a10…e7d3backed Yes | 52c | 698$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.04 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Yes | 65c | 695.11$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.61 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed No | 47c | 694$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.18 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec0…76f4backed Yes | 50c | 692$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…e1babacked Yes | 67c | 677$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.41 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 676.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked No | 30c | 671$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.3 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…c888backed Yes | 44c | 665$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.4 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…735dbacked Yes | 53c | 659$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.73 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c2…1be5backed Yes | 54c | 654$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.84 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb524…0808backed Yes | 25c | 646.83$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.03 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked No | 56c | 639$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.84 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…98e8backed No | 33c | 638$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.54 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 34c | 626.66$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.94 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…49f3backed Yes | 52c | 619$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.12 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed Yes | 53c | 618$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.46 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9a…cc24backed No | 64c | 615$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…f562backed No | 54c | 610$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…ca4cbacked Yes | 74c | 609$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.34 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 3c | 600.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…c6fbbacked No | 47c | 600$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5d…6e7dbacked Yes | 68c | 589.99$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -44%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 3c | 589.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc0…4942backed No | 47c | 584$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.48 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a8…2a44backed No | 48c | 580$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…b550backed Yes | 46c | 576$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.04 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93c0…b919backed Yes | 53c | 566$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 20c | 555.55$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 59 | 3.4%2 W · 57 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43f6…bb1ebacked No | 58c | 513$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc92…91cfbacked Yes | 71c | 511.64$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…703cbacked No | 64c | 502$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.28 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe224…6e71backed Yes | 60c | 500.19$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb91b…a805backed Yes | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f48…79c9backed No | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8acf…2f7bbacked Yes | 11c | 497$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x656c…af94backed Yes | 76c | 490$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +59%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd70b…a152backed No | 24c | 490$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 5c | 485.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa78e…74b0backed Yes | 17c | 480$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…9a60backed No | 46c | 464$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.44 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…aa07backed Yes | 53c | 453$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.91 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…a498backed Yes | 11c | 436$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.04 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcde9…d705backed No | 47c | 433$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.51 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ff…986cbacked No | 50c | 433$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +138.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6f41backed No | 46c | 430$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.8 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…6e2ebacked No | 47c | 430$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.1 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ed…ec87backed No | 47c | 417$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.99 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 19c | 403$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.43 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 42c | 402.2$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.71 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…5c1bbacked Yes | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9677…78e9backed Yes | 76c | 396.96$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.96 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 5c | 392.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9a…f183backed Yes | 19c | 392$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.52 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +127.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed Yes | 53c | 390$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.3 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…88f0backed No | 26c | 390$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9873…c59ebacked Yes | 77c | 389.86$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa1…eb3abacked No | 45c | 387$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?this page
- Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
- Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
- Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
- Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
- Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.