TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$294,290
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$303,954

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $294,290 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 362 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4c0a…ad2fbacked No27c65,962$17,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,809.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x041f…fd1bbacked Yes73c23,162$16,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,253.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12c4…8557backed Yes73c21,601$15,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,832.27250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81ac…3a81backed Yes73c21,199$15,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,723.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed Yes69c5,326$3,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,631.0711723.9%28 W · 89 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No0c3,600$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6126312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes60c2,872$1,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,143.3610126.7%27 W · 74 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes38c2,629$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,631.745016%8 W · 42 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-60.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa04f…15babacked No55c2,005$1,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,102.75450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No24c1,477$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.924012.5%5 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-52.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42b9…ded7backed Yes52c1,476$767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.353925.6%10 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-45.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed No1c1,312$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.451754%7 W · 168 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1787…44a9backed Yes18c1,309$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,073.38666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+109.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x91ba…c705backed Yes36c1,294$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828.161145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcf8…0657backed Yes64c1,249$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.842462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x05f2…95debacked Yes19c1,140$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.41855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+100.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked No4c1,078$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.81591.7%1 W · 58 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6ef…095ebacked Yes46c1,073$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.942254.5%12 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+58.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No2c1,053$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1321713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xab07…4248backed Yes78c1,030$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.712100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb993…6e3abacked Yes45c1,001$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.55785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.32per pick54cpaid+78.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf788…6cdbbacked Yes67c958.88$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.97666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40a1…8919backed No56c956$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.7922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-65.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1294…9151backed No54c951$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.541850%9 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+35%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f52…a35abacked Yes13c947$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823.89862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick42cpaid+132.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e79…e974backed Yes53c941$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.271546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+78.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xabeb…7a78backed No47c941$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.272035%7 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick45cpaid0%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes74c929.44$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.144360.5%26 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No9c896.74$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.181,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcabd…3764backed Yes11c892$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$793.881060%6 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+77.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0285…59d6backed No68c859$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.321050%5 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7db2…1c02backed No2c850$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd41…3796backed Yes42c834$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.721662.5%10 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.20per pick42cpaid+40.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5ae0…4590backed Yes13c805$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.351241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid+33.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6702…0051backed Yes17c796$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.682454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+93.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5140…a2debacked Yes11c768$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.73862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+112.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0956…9aa4backed Yes51c764$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.361266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+59.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf92a…9134backed No49c764$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.362245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x999f…da43backed Yes59c743.76$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.775048%24 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf53c…00acbacked Yes68c742$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.44771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7509…b7c8backed No9c738.8$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes37c737.53$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4658241.5%34 W · 48 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3859…7359backed Yes55c709$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.051250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a10…e7d3backed Yes52c698$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.041145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-29.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Yes65c695.11$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.612646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-24.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3de…5339backed No47c694$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.181931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-47.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ec0…76f4backed Yes50c692$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3461154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+42.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33e2…e1babacked Yes67c677$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.411338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No4c676.02$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.962522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1cb…933ebacked No30c671$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.32250%11 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+31.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce55…c888backed Yes44c665$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.41471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.6wins+0.26per pick46cpaid+76.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x805a…735dbacked Yes53c659$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.731643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+35%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00c2…1be5backed Yes54c654$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.841560%9 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+61.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb524…0808backed Yes25c646.83$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.032425%6 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9778…1d7bbacked No56c639$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.842744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f0f…98e8backed No33c638$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.541216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.5wins-0.29per pick46cpaid-47.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No34c626.66$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.9420148.8%98 W · 103 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6478…49f3backed Yes52c619$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.121250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3734…01a3backed Yes53c618$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.461957.9%11 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+52.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdc9a…cc24backed No64c615$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.61546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+21.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa488…f562backed No54c610$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.41154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid+6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a3a…ca4cbacked Yes74c609$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.341662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+28.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No3c600.72$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6119432%62 W · 132 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe17a…c6fbbacked No47c600$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2822040%8 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf5d…6e7dbacked Yes68c589.99$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.99540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-44%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No3c589.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.112560%0 W · 256 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefc0…4942backed No47c584$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.482035%7 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2a8…2a44backed No48c580$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.41050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1eaa…b550backed Yes46c576$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.041353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+38.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93c0…b919backed Yes53c566$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.02633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-47.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No20c555.55$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110593.4%2 W · 57 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick9cpaid-94.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43f6…bb1ebacked No58c513$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.54633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc92…91cfbacked Yes71c511.64$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.78540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca67…703cbacked No64c502$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.282733.3%9 W · 18 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-42.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe224…6e71backed Yes60c500.19$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.19540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb91b…a805backed Yes55c500$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f48…79c9backed No45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid+38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8acf…2f7bbacked Yes11c497$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.33650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+99.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x656c…af94backed Yes76c490$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.61758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+59%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd70b…a152backed No24c490$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.6728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid+28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No5c485.69$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.222792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa78e…74b0backed Yes17c480$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.41030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid+18.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2934…9a60backed No46c464$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.441758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+17.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d23…aa07backed Yes53c453$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.911241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8401…a498backed Yes11c436$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.041650%8 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+56.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcde9…d705backed No47c433$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.511442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1ff…986cbacked No50c433$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+138.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ad5…6f41backed No46c430$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.81844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd727…6e2ebacked No47c430$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.11330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick52cpaid-41.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe7ed…ec87backed No47c417$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.991258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+33.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd622…defcbacked Yes19c403$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.432737%10 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No42c402.2$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.718650%43 W · 43 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29de…5c1bbacked Yes51c400$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1963100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+126.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9677…78e9backed Yes76c396.96$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.96850%4 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-26.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No5c392.09$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.511414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-47.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c9a…f183backed Yes19c392$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.521163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+127.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7f46…01b1backed Yes53c390$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.31741.2%7 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5383…88f0backed No26c390$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.41850%9 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9873…c59ebacked Yes77c389.86$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.86475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdaa1…eb3abacked No45c387$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.151145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-27.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.