AI · resolved market
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78871d70b13de8a22a7361aa8e2ad5620e29e3cd9c18260febed039d44c8901b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $197,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $212,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $197,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd9c8…c658backed Yes | 2c | 6,417$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.26 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 5,942$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.88 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 0c | 4,038$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe31b…5f28backed Yes | 1c | 2,910$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed67…0112backed Yes | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd553…6af5backed Yes | 9c | 2,200$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 2,135$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2791…8345backed Yes | 3c | 1,733$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe22b…0d92backed Yes | 1c | 1,685$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7eb…593ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,653$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813c…25adbacked Yes | 3c | 1,610$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e5…7c6ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,601$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a9…f263backed Yes | 1c | 1,586$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd2…5231backed Yes | 3c | 1,569$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ad…f14fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,547$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8484…e327backed Yes | 3c | 1,439$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22ac…055ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,389$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b88…aebebacked Yes | 3c | 1,351$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,279$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 1c | 1,270$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 70 | 0%0 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3819…6292backed Yes | 3c | 1,258$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,192$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…2c7abacked Yes | 3c | 1,076$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe476…8409backed Yes | 3c | 1,042$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…cf78backed Yes | 1c | 1,029$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 1,013$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd59c…a66abacked Yes | 3c | 1,007$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…98f3backed Yes | 3c | 993$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bda…be47backed Yes | 2c | 976.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d87…ac19backed Yes | 3c | 976$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d97…d3a9backed Yes | 1c | 959$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…1506backed Yes | 1c | 950$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…eff5backed Yes | 1c | 877$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe753…bdd9backed Yes | 3c | 857$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…09adbacked Yes | 12c | 834$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…56e8backed Yes | 12c | 820$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked Yes | 4c | 802.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 801.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb524…0808backed Yes | 3c | 794.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes | 13c | 783$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.79 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08bb…3ba9backed Yes | 3c | 771$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 754.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed Yes | 12c | 737$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.44 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -5.8wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…0217backed Yes | 12c | 675$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 3c | 666.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…7a33backed Yes | 13c | 495$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35d8…c3efbacked Yes | 4c | 466.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8da1…a046backed Yes | 4c | 455.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 451.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…bd71backed Yes | 13c | 447$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.11 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 442.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 7c | 435.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…735dbacked Yes | 12c | 426$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f8…6c22backed Yes | 3c | 422$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…7359backed Yes | 13c | 335$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 334.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc596…2428backed Yes | 13c | 328.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 8c | 299.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 7c | 255.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x001a…2a58backed Yes | 10c | 232.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0d…1683backed Yes | 13c | 204$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 71 | 7%5 W · 66 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes | 13c | 191$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…f4d9backed Yes | 6c | 158.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 27c | 56.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb36…c2b6backed Yes | 27c | 49.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?this page
- Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?Yes won
- Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
- Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
- Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
- Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.