TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

IPO · resolved market

Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$222,948
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$254,007

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $222,948 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 312 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in IPO
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6c64…ac0bbacked No0c10,904$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70ff…b65fbacked No1c6,393$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.23128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-53.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf040…61f4backed No0c4,500$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3751…7dfdbacked No7c4,228$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No1c3,778$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.08640%0 W · 64 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes52c2,838$1,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,362.393616.7%6 W · 30 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b29…ebaebacked No49c2,318$1,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,125.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No1c2,250$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.922334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-48%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked No46c2,189$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.392626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-40.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed No1c2,134$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.24382.6%1 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-70.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x928f…9a88backed Yes68c2,031$1,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.343100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+61.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No16c1,706$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ccb…6c69backed No38c1,652$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.76450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+89.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6007…9553backed No45c1,528$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No4c1,457$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dbc…1dd9backed No22c1,382$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba8b…9084backed No46c1,332$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ae…8598backed Yes54c1,217$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.82366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes46c1,170$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.662245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf13d…9896backed No34c1,150$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8de5…9416backed Yes66c1,150$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdec8…3b24backed Yes72c1,083$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.182100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x409a…4e8fbacked Yes62c1,044$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.72366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x28a4…15eebacked No2c1,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1750%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9b4…75a0backed No45c1,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0826…0b32backed Yes52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480850%4 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e5f…d395backed Yes54c963$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.98333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-38.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23b9…6447backed No38c931$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xff0c…36eebacked No46c925$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x090c…3c25backed No46c853$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x528f…7572backed Yes65c843$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.05650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6702…0051backed No35c843$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.0530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes55c842.08$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.94650%3 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+44.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x44cf…2211backed No6c841.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…a9d4backed No41c803.86$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.5230%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb18…2372backed Yes55c788$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c86…b75ebacked No34c784$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.56540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-33%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacb1…6de8backed No69c764$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1cb…933ebacked No77c746$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0241…162abacked No40c742$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.8333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+156.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57ab…434bbacked Yes55c740$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-39.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcac…f545backed No68c724$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.32425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes32c724$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.32757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+89.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f85…e5a3backed No36c704$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bcb…f59bbacked Yes66c700$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2382100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+392.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8132…a491backed Yes64c693$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.483100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+282.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No2c676.24$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.85170%0 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0a8…0c57backed Yes54c674$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.04450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7166…f815backed Yes62c673$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.742100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+189%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7270…add3backed No46c673$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.58714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-68.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6546…c454backed Yes64c672$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xadbd…93f9backed No36c661$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f3e…f9d4backed No46c654$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.84520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-64.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8d9…5e1abacked No47c650$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb407…a978backed No42c647$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d23…aa07backed No34c643$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.62425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b57…981abacked No56c624.12$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc71…b45bbacked No56c623.48$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22e9…6c71backed No56c621.54$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2175…e56bbacked No56c616.39$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ad…550ebacked No56c614.46$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa13a…b333backed No56c614.37$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7e7…0cebbacked No56c612.76$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f21…8b6abacked No49c612.55$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x305e…61f7backed No56c610.87$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbbe…f1d5backed No46c605$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.3450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+16.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4395…de01backed No56c602.68$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5a6…c8d8backed No56c592.89$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed No17c587.3$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.1944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff2d…caf4backed Yes33c577$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.592100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+136.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a54…db64backed Yes54c561$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa78e…74b0backed Yes23c524$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.482100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.74per pick27cpaid+284.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c2d…ddd6backed Yes43c522$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.542100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+102.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa6a…21c3backed Yes58c490$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.8450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+47.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f46…01b1backed Yes66c490$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.6475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+189.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaaa1…827bbacked Yes60c490$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca78…55bcbacked No3c487.87$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8727…83d7backed Yes62c484$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.92450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No26c461.6$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.761233.3%4 W · 8 L-3.4wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-55.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes66c460.9$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.172927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-55.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe72c…bbf0backed Yes31c458$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.02250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+61.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb242…eb89backed No47c430.79$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.2830%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6f5…d7aabacked No45c412$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.420%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5140…a2debacked No78c390$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4061…f5ebbacked Yes22c390$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.2475%3 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick32cpaid+136.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b91…2709backed Yes60c386.32$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.353740.5%15 W · 22 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcfbd…17c9backed No78c383$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb555…83e5backed Yes22c383$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+127.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No8c375.63$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.322458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e1a…f6c6backed Yes53c374.89$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+87.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No39c372.37$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.614548.9%22 W · 23 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+1.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfffe…8016backed No30c371.03$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd242…e84dbacked No46c364.27$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.07944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No32c362.23$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.473250%16 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f05…b8debacked No55c335.28$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbdf…ccafbacked No56c333.34$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f76…373ebacked No55c328.27$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x557a…9f70backed No57c328$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc10…818abacked No56c325.61$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3143…cd52backed Yes60c325$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1301100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.