IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in August 2026 (ET)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62ba17e89836a5386924dd22b504c3755cc03e9e9e63f77060ed73f0d74da93c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44cf…2211backed Yes | 1c | 2,142$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 6c | 1,237$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…c6d3backed Yes | 16c | 1,152$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ee…eb1ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,134$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 825.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 4c | 785.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 2c | 599.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf95f…f988backed Yes | 4c | 499.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4a…b3e8backed Yes | 5c | 223.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…cf78backed Yes | 13c | 159.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf29b…961ebacked Yes | 20c | 150.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 42c | 115.2$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.82 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 37cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde7e…396bbacked Yes | 13c | 106.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 79c | 15.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in August 2026 (ET)?this page
- Will SpaceX fail to complete an initial public offering by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET?No won
- Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in April 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in December 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in July 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?Yes won
- Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in March 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in May 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in September 2026 (ET)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.