TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,512
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,972

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,512 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x45b2…cbc1backed No6c3,666$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.965510.9%6 W · 49 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes67c3,433$2,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,115.7821035.7%75 W · 135 L+13.4wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x409a…4e8fbacked Yes67c2,529$1,694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834.57650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+65.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6513…8c10backed No21c1,183$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.7610034%34 W · 66 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+23%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x95cc…f215backed No33c886$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.381127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-60%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No34c864.23$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.965012%6 W · 44 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-71.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa647…d77dbacked No33c855$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.151747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dee…f426backed No9c818.32$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.1850%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6578…ba32backed No33c808$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.641952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+21.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1284…fba9backed Yes42c535.78$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.48250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0486…2a2fbacked Yes59c490.9$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.477332.9%24 W · 49 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid+33.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7289…4bffbacked No33c453$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.491241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No50c431.12$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.18650%43 W · 43 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked No62c420$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.42166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+46.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed Yes53c340.17$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.5625837.6%97 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No33c266.69$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.255848.3%28 W · 30 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No29c252.79$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7819120.9%40 W · 151 L-20.8wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-57.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2a24…2605backed Yes66c229$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.86560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No6c220$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1314643.8%64 W · 82 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x456b…38d3backed Yes79c200$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-48%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd71f…fe71backed Yes67c199$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.67366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc972…dcd9backed Yes57c159.4$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.012259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9d9…bacbbacked Yes67c151$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.831241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad02…d5e5backed No30c135.98$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed No43c135.13$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.25341.5%22 W · 31 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1892…1b4cbacked Yes79c126.35$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-36.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf5b8…a6d4backed Yes35c126$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x800d…628ebacked Yes80c125.09$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1d4…86e3backed Yes76c120.65$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9492…3c58backed Yes69c116.33$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.34955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+50.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4b3…cf22backed Yes35c115$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No61c108.19$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6657426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e57…6c04backed Yes67c103$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.991233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4745738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x608d…3933backed Yes65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-27.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc2be…66b0backed Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x907c…23c1backed No44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442650%13 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6a7…0af9backed No28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb760…ccd7backed No20c99.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207946.8%37 W · 42 L+10.0wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+17.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes65c98$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.312050.8%61 W · 59 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb513…f628backed Yes78c85$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.55666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x017b…1ef4backed No35c80.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.143537.1%13 W · 22 L+5.0wins+0.14per pick23cpaid+47.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcc23…8bc9backed No64c80$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+64.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No50c78.3$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.455950.8%30 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-1.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6469…c029backed No46c70$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.21428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-53.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb6c…445fbacked Yes63c69.28$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.962100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+190.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd24a…942cbacked Yes74c60.56$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.82450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa89f…e9ddbacked Yes72c60$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes52c55.55$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6647938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85b4…2d43backed Yes33c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.5837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+66.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94bc…5b27backed No65c45$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ec8…a75dbacked No65c43$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f92…15d2backed Yes69c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed No27c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.82433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf56…ee5fbacked Yes62c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+23.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb38…ae5fbacked Yes55c39.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.21346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.20per pick27cpaid+20.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No47c37.72$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7340712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd739…e396backed Yes54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7db4…f1c2backed Yes72c37$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03b7…fafabacked No65c34$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No48c34$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4172935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa234…f7ebbacked Yes38c33.39$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.64766%31 W · 16 L+5.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+10.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xadca…57cbbacked No45c33.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No47c31.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8619834.8%69 W · 129 L-23.7wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-43.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9c14…f7eabacked No65c31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4262…abaabacked Yes36c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-24.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3d…12e5backed Yes56c29.88$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99ba…6391backed Yes44c29.54$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.546033.3%20 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x595f…6664backed Yes55c25.11$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+80.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3773…50d1backed Yes71c23$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a2…0205backed No65c22$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa42a…cb8ebacked Yes68c21.67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.93560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…baeabacked Yes56c21.4$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.425632.8%84 W · 172 L-24.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0bf…b759backed Yes66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.81250%6 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99f1…946cbacked Yes75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick73cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93f3…5d04backed Yes73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1b8…2d98backed Yes77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0aa…0730backed Yes56c19.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+56%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes66c19.07$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5120544.4%91 W · 114 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8941…83d7backed Yes55c19$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.55366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f9a…737dbacked No65c18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31f7…cb47backed Yes72c16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc664…8ca9backed No65c16$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aaf…bd2ebacked Yes72c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.25100%5 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ccd…da80backed Yes77c14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.22366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick74cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.