Movies · resolved market
Will The Pitt win Best Ensemble in a Drama Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88afa21ce3e164dd534d2fe205ad36804976b6c1b2cec9a0d2b738a34df9bb67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,841
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,841 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47eb…8195backed No | 9c | 817$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.53 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6f…6890backed No | 18c | 699$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 17c | 663$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.02 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -60%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2566…7d60backed No | 10c | 663$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 5c | 650.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…b301backed Yes | 77c | 629$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.67 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed No | 23c | 629$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.67 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…3c25backed No | 18c | 550$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed No | 10c | 534$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.14 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…4bffbacked No | 10c | 531$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…e6aabacked No | 14c | 460$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…24efbacked No | 14c | 458$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.12 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead6…911fbacked No | 23c | 456$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked Yes | 77c | 428$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.44 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1b…5951backed Yes | 71c | 367$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5d…b72fbacked No | 29c | 367$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d4…be7cbacked No | 14c | 348$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed No | 10c | 317$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked No | 19c | 245.84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 11c | 227$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…e28abacked No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked No | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3544…93dcbacked Yes | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 17c | 199.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed No | 14c | 154.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 133 | 21.1%28 W · 105 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 15c | 152.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 22c | 140$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe004…7849backed Yes | 53c | 120$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 14c | 119.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 17c | 67.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 76c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425a…78cbbacked Yes | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will The Pitt win Best Ensemble in a Drama Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?this page
- Will Severance win Best Ensemble in a Drama Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Stranger Things win Best Ensemble in a Drama Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.