Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Ryan Binkley be the Republican Nominee for TX-32?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6868da97e784698e359839f22e7f85db0268153ab6412837538f64d537e4c35e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,322 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dc9…0e6ebacked Yes | 3c | 13,752$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked Yes | 13c | 911$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…2e44backed Yes | 12c | 795.51$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed No | 74c | 427$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…4bffbacked Yes | 26c | 427$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 6c | 342.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 9c | 315$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4d…3e2cbacked Yes | 11c | 171.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 24c | 166.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 11c | 140.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…a432backed Yes | 13c | 127$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 14c | 107$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ryan Binkley be the Republican Nominee for TX-32?this page
- Will Jace Yarbrough be the Republican Nominee for TX-32?Yes won
- Will Paul Bondar be the Republican Nominee for TX-32?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.