Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Jace Yarbrough be the Republican Nominee for TX-32?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1dbf0d1252cbf5e47ec72fb0d8a0590e1c62f333c8f5699397ea64e8ea177edc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,747 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked No | 56c | 1,331$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ae…e13abacked Yes | 32c | 1,193$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed No | 60c | 710$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70e7…4a70backed Yes | 33c | 495$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd29f…26b4backed No | 67c | 495$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…d8e3backed Yes | 40c | 476$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 10c | 455.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 7c | 415.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 10c | 404.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf100…2fcabacked Yes | 40c | 289$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…141abacked No | 14c | 282$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…00ddbacked No | 8c | 245.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 17c | 201.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +9.0wins | +0.34per pick | 23cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 41c | 185.38$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.45 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…bd71backed No | 68c | 156$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 15c | 112$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4d…3e2cbacked No | 12c | 99.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 20c | 94.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…cf43backed No | 54c | 79.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 18c | 67.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 38c | 61.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…a127backed No | 60c | 55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…f2d0backed Yes | 77c | 41.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…2e44backed Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc79…f792backed Yes | 58c | 34.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed Yes | 50c | 27.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jace Yarbrough be the Republican Nominee for TX-32?this page
- Will Paul Bondar be the Republican Nominee for TX-32?No won
- Will Ryan Binkley be the Republican Nominee for TX-32?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.