AI · resolved market
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3134fac783830c1c8a64b539ced49a133491c8484c139a5716e9b721302a67be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $290,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $291,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $290,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 610 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5342…57bcbacked Yes | 35c | 11,903$4,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,220.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked Yes | 52c | 11,401$5,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,948.28 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62f6…6300backed Yes | 78c | 6,494$5,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,067.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 47c | 6,494$3,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,047.19 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6db8…2e56backed No | 49c | 5,688$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,888.41 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -71%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 27c | 4,815$1,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,520.17 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…2ebfbacked Yes | 73c | 3,904$2,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,847.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x353c…2af5backed No | 53c | 2,935$1,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,390.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 47c | 2,854$1,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,347 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 24c | 2,730$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.67 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a51…006ebacked No | 77c | 2,702$2,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.64 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabd6…58dbbacked No | 43c | 2,644$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,515.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +134.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked No | 45c | 1,972$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,084.6 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 59c | 1,963$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,166.96 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4805backed No | 40c | 1,870$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,114.68 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1063…1d3fbacked Yes | 54c | 1,809$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.86 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…275ebacked Yes | 54c | 1,710$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.4 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed Yes | 60c | 1,674$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.4 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -5.8wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8151…3421backed Yes | 72c | 1,643$1,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,178.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…0137backed No | 40c | 1,558$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.8 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 53c | 1,510$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.35 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01bb…e944backed No | 44c | 1,508$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +129.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 46c | 1,432$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.32 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf8…ded2backed Yes | 61c | 1,412$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed No | 41c | 1,368$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.56 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…1caebacked No | 27c | 1,363$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.63 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed Yes | 58c | 1,341$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.87 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2566…7d60backed No | 39c | 1,339$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.79 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed No | 55c | 1,338$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.58 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 57c | 1,311$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.76 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed Yes | 66c | 1,309$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.94 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…19c8backed Yes | 28c | 1,290$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked Yes | 60c | 1,282$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.53 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…b65fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,246$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.1 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +164.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00c2…1be5backed No | 27c | 1,223$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.79 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…1598backed No | 44c | 1,146$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.7 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…58ccbacked Yes | 50c | 1,143$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.5 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +109%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…e6aabacked Yes | 75c | 1,102$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.5 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked Yes | 24c | 1,061$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.53 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…d7aabacked No | 46c | 1,060$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.12 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…e0ecbacked No | 31c | 1,056$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.17 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…d6c1backed No | 51c | 1,054$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked No | 44c | 1,043$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.02 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +283.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d6…b213backed No | 39c | 1,042$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6587…4f63backed No | 57c | 1,027$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.94 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed No | 21c | 1,021$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.59 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 16c | 1,013$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.12 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…2241backed No | 40c | 1,013$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.8 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…6896backed No | 53c | 1,013$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 43c | 1,012$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.69 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed Yes | 50c | 969$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 45c | 967.2$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.95 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b32…c8a9backed Yes | 58c | 958$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…d837backed Yes | 60c | 946$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6813…39e6backed Yes | 78c | 944$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.32 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8624…b484backed Yes | 46c | 938$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.01 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…703cbacked Yes | 50c | 934$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…68cabacked No | 46c | 933$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefc0…4942backed Yes | 56c | 931$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.36 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9774…6d3cbacked No | 23c | 920$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5880…a675backed No | 41c | 909$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.31 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 50c | 908.3$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.44 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabeb…7a78backed No | 24c | 894$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.44 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 10c | 892.9$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.44 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa78e…74b0backed Yes | 78c | 891$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.98 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed No | 38c | 888$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.92 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5661…ef17backed Yes | 54c | 882$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.28 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2971…b901backed No | 46c | 882$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.28 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +39%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8697…4165backed No | 39c | 879$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.19 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…0acbbacked Yes | 61c | 878$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.58 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed Yes | 56c | 863$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.28 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked No | 59c | 848$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.9 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed No | 46c | 845$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.3 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +5.6wins | +0.28per pick | 42cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5372…5f61backed No | 26c | 827$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed No | 26c | 825$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe539…5345backed No | 44c | 822$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.32 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…2372backed Yes | 74c | 801$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.74 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +73%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x929c…8cb6backed Yes | 77c | 800.2$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 44c | 794.34$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.1 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9322…01e3backed No | 46c | 791$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48a…fcd2backed No | 38c | 789$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.96 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa457…1a93backed No | 44c | 784$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.04 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf49…6cfebacked Yes | 56c | 780$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.8 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +4.7wins | +0.29per pick | 52cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…735dbacked Yes | 66c | 766$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.56 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed Yes | 75c | 761$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.7 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked Yes | 54c | 748$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.92 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec9…b7c0backed No | 26c | 742$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.08 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9151backed No | 34c | 727$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.82 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa55b…857bbacked Yes | 61c | 726$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.86 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 12c | 725.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.71 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…73a0backed No | 41c | 725$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.75 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…f15fbacked Yes | 70c | 709$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.42per pick | 57cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed Yes | 76c | 700$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ee…0c00backed Yes | 73c | 700$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes | 74c | 700$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.84 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed0…0532backed Yes | 61c | 698$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.78 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x246f…0ab2backed No | 44c | 694$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.64 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3684…9669backed No | 34c | 690$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.4 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f51…c63cbacked Yes | 55c | 688$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked Yes | 55c | 687$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.78 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +46%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026this page
- Will Tesla deliver 500000 or more vehicles in Q1 2026No won
- Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026Yes won
- Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q1 2026No won
- Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q1 2026No won
- Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q1 2026No won
- Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q1 2026No won
- Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q1 2026No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.