AI · resolved market
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q1 2026
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5da60268839e847caa999444807635eabb2653257d5d301ffd1887e8916cb28d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70ff…b65fbacked Yes | 9c | 6,853$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.36 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +164.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,194$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.28 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed Yes | 12c | 2,131$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.46 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1e…65a5backed Yes | 15c | 1,971$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 8c | 1,503$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.62 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x673d…e929backed Yes | 10c | 1,364$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.86 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed3…7ad4backed Yes | 12c | 1,171$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6db8…2e56backed Yes | 10c | 1,035$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -71%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 1,015$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.83 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed Yes | 13c | 985$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.71 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7635…9ae0backed Yes | 10c | 971$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.04 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +50%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa359…a882backed Yes | 5c | 936.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.61 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -72%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 3c | 892.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2a4ebacked Yes | 10c | 859$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.62 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked Yes | 12c | 855$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed Yes | 16c | 830$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3acd…a423backed Yes | 11c | 788.65$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9617…2f8ebacked Yes | 10c | 779.7$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.34 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 13c | 779.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…3274backed No | 76c | 766$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 7c | 705.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.93 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…7d8abacked Yes | 10c | 578$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked Yes | 11c | 556.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc192…c8d3backed Yes | 6c | 523$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02af…a5adbacked Yes | 8c | 519.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c19…77cdbacked Yes | 5c | 491$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 488.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ff…a9a5backed Yes | 4c | 476.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…ba85backed Yes | 10c | 446$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 8c | 428$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…ab6abacked Yes | 16c | 426$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.16 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 15c | 409$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.35 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…6487backed Yes | 23c | 370$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.1 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd719…d8e5backed No | 77c | 370$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc40a…1f50backed Yes | 5c | 353$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…ea0cbacked Yes | 10c | 348.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…2cf4backed Yes | 24c | 340$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 45cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b92…7585backed Yes | 5c | 322$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed Yes | 5c | 316$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a5…f844backed Yes | 4c | 306.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 305.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 6c | 299.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…1f07backed Yes | 24c | 299$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.76 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee91…093ebacked Yes | 8c | 285$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 10c | 280.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd19a…5b88backed Yes | 24c | 255$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ad…6d7ebacked Yes | 8c | 255$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 14c | 252.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2d…ddd6backed Yes | 16c | 235$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…4f6cbacked Yes | 6c | 234.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb88…6b99backed No | 77c | 207$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.61 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…9930backed Yes | 23c | 207$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +19%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 8c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 72 | 4.2%3 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…aa0ebacked Yes | 7c | 186.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 8c | 159.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 55 | 3.6%2 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 9c | 151.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 54 | 5.6%3 W · 51 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x725c…34e4backed Yes | 8c | 150.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 14c | 142.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 8c | 141.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked No | 76c | 128$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ab…d018backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 13c | 114.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…7c01backed Yes | 16c | 108$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 13c | 105$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b2…b7febacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…ab7abacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 96.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b4…c3f4backed Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa776…7733backed Yes | 16c | 75.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973d…fb30backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 78c | 17.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q1 2026this page
- Will Tesla deliver 500000 or more vehicles in Q1 2026No won
- Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026Yes won
- Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q1 2026No won
- Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q1 2026No won
- Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q1 2026No won
- Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q1 2026No won
- Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.