AI · resolved market
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa88a4624a4b16ae181513b060a93c4b3c44ec052f019080d7c992f348a3e4036
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $177,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $181,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $177,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 271 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a51…006ebacked Yes | 56c | 6,442$3,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,818.24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…b65fbacked Yes | 26c | 3,592$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,669.21 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +164.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 15c | 2,237$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,896.39 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…aff0backed Yes | 21c | 2,077$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,635.07 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +5.4wins | +0.30per pick | 31cpaid | +144.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed Yes | 14c | 2,005$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,727.63 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…c454backed Yes | 18c | 1,767$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,445.73 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.3wins | +0.31per pick | 48cpaid | +142.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5085…22c7backed Yes | 61c | 1,719$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…ea0cbacked Yes | 16c | 1,651$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,383.95 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 49c | 1,587$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.3 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 26c | 1,520$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,126.31 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…cd8ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,488$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,294.56 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…e974backed Yes | 11c | 1,384$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,231.76 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 30c | 1,377$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.99 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…4bffbacked Yes | 49c | 1,365$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.97 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb83e…10fcbacked Yes | 13c | 1,322$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150.14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c2…fcbebacked Yes | 20c | 1,299$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,037.42 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a0…b7bdbacked Yes | 26c | 1,297$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$956.03 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0956…9aa4backed No | 78c | 1,283$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.74 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked Yes | 27c | 1,218$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.14 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…e898backed Yes | 13c | 1,165$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.55 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +123%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…735dbacked No | 73c | 1,159$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.07 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf907…e7dbbacked Yes | 13c | 1,156$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked Yes | 29c | 1,149$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.51 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked Yes | 26c | 1,139$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.86 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…db2abacked Yes | 22c | 1,112$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…2ebfbacked Yes | 74c | 1,108$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f2…55d9backed No | 29c | 1,087$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…d837backed Yes | 27c | 1,057$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked No | 20c | 1,025$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…9930backed No | 51c | 1,004$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.46 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +19%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2a4ebacked Yes | 27c | 997$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.81 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaf…f63cbacked No | 73c | 996$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.08 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x541a…1740backed Yes | 13c | 989$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed Yes | 22c | 985$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.3 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…f7eabacked Yes | 13c | 968$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7c…a11bbacked Yes | 13c | 948$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.76 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 41c | 918.44$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.96 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed Yes | 27c | 913$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.49 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61a8…f658backed No | 73c | 901$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.73 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d2…c74abacked Yes | 56c | 897.78$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7238…e52dbacked Yes | 27c | 878$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.94 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.37per pick | 49cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2e…fe02backed Yes | 32c | 877$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.36 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 29cpaid | +123.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…7181backed Yes | 14c | 864$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.04 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8433…6e0fbacked Yes | 22c | 858$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed Yes | 22c | 858$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.24 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…3e96backed No | 71c | 851$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.88 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa359…a882backed Yes | 73c | 837.21$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.1 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -72%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed Yes | 22c | 817$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.26 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…dbd4backed No | 76c | 815$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.95 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…1598backed Yes | 26c | 812$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.88 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83be…6f94backed No | 68c | 745$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.6 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…4d9abacked No | 76c | 731$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…7572backed Yes | 22c | 730$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +123.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…ec98backed Yes | 25c | 725$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.39 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…095ebacked Yes | 14c | 715$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.9 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…c6fbbacked No | 73c | 705$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.65 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…f1d5backed Yes | 71c | 691$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.39 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9617…2f8ebacked Yes | 51c | 684.76$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.76 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5d…4e58backed No | 73c | 683$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.59 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed3…7ad4backed No | 26c | 679.55$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.69 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…141abacked No | 78c | 601$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.78 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed Yes | 13c | 600$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4c…be9fbacked No | 29c | 597$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2c…7f01backed Yes | 51c | 593.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…c4e8backed No | 73c | 574$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.02 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae0…4590backed No | 74c | 553$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.22 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked Yes | 32c | 549$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.32 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c07…956bbacked No | 78c | 541$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1220…741abacked No | 74c | 513$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.62 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7170…ed44backed No | 73c | 489$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.67 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35d2…6698backed No | 78c | 489$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +127.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked No | 73c | 484$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.32 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…e0ecbacked Yes | 27c | 484$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.32 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42ca…8380backed Yes | 13c | 470.25$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +663.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…b2efbacked No | 73c | 469$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.37 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06a0…cae1backed Yes | 27c | 469$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.37 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd719…d8e5backed Yes | 28c | 464$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.08 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked Yes | 27c | 461.44$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.91 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +283.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed Yes | 12c | 452$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.76 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…4018backed No | 68c | 450$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c5…b4e1backed Yes | 12c | 443$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.84 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +203.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…b46ebacked No | 73c | 440$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.2 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 35c | 437.19$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b63…52cfbacked Yes | 13c | 434$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 44c | 432.97$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.09 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a88…513ebacked No | 77c | 431$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.87 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb8…eea6backed Yes | 22c | 429$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.62 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +47%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…6beabacked No | 78c | 429$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.62 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 19c | 428$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.01 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…d9c1backed No | 72c | 425$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd215…b4eebacked No | 73c | 425$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.25 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6c…26e0backed Yes | 27c | 425$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1100…815ebacked Yes | 27c | 407$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed Yes | 27c | 404$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.92 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6159…7501backed No | 73c | 398$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.54 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd502…4974backed Yes | 32c | 397$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.26 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6499…05d2backed No | 77c | 392$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9818…7cd3backed No | 78c | 387$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.86 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…b418backed No | 73c | 384$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.32 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked No | 68c | 377$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.36 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026this page
- Will Tesla deliver 500000 or more vehicles in Q1 2026No won
- Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q1 2026No won
- Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q1 2026No won
- Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q1 2026No won
- Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q1 2026No won
- Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q1 2026No won
- Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.