TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 80m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$67,513
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$67,367

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,513 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes1c10,203$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.5232814.9%49 W · 279 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-59.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4da7…355ebacked Yes37c4,377$1,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,609.977538.7%29 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x955c…990fbacked Yes75c4,133$3,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,094.357157.7%41 W · 30 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+29.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes32c3,334$1,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,063.5629423.5%69 W · 225 L+0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfed7…9b10backed Yes29c3,228$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925.943330.3%10 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2971…b901backed No49c2,786$1,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,420.862254.5%12 W · 10 L+3.7wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+46.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xda73…4d41backed Yes69c2,083$1,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,429.3120%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f11…ddc4backed No29c2,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,420.215059.3%89 W · 61 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+24.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x6ea7…2550backed Yes51c1,825$931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$930.751421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.23per pick44cpaid-56%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes28c1,493$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.066639.4%26 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1920…a04ebacked No80c1,207$963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.4512631%39 W · 87 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-40.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes47c1,009$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.3326431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcffe…146dbacked Yes40c1,002$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.5712936.4%47 W · 82 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes49c931.54$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.8218746%86 W · 101 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4041…6f52backed Yes18c898.77$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.8817017.1%29 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked No63c777.73$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.9213534.8%47 W · 88 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7289…4bffbacked Yes51c717$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.67944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe78…c533backed Yes70c456.99$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.8929735.7%106 W · 191 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No71c453.43$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.673461.8%21 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes13c428.76$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.341,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes71c400$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28447328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x28ab…2048backed No51c392.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.151770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdff8…3c8bbacked Yes55c331.29$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.687241.7%30 W · 42 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+24.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes51c328.09$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.412536%9 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8718…6741backed Yes51c322$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.2250%0 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No52c309.63$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.278351.8%43 W · 40 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d5a…4c29backed Yes62c294$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.312240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No63c283.56$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.883119.4%6 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-61.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed Yes32c251.86$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.113820.3%28 W · 110 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid+27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed Yes68c250$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17017540%70 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa070…cd87backed Yes60c250$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9205…2aa7backed Yes34c226.73$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x43f7…35e5backed No49c218.8$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.8955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick34cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes20c206.08$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.852686.3%17 W · 251 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-53%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6bca…b60abacked Yes43c196.36$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.4311421.9%25 W · 89 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-40.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No51c183.53$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.9313333.1%44 W · 89 L-10.3wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-41.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes31c148$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.241533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+48.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x94bb…c320backed Yes28c142.85$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes35c142.42$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.859434%32 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Yes29c139$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes51c128$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7319133%63 W · 128 L+0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No72c122.78$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.3167232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3217…7f16backed Yes28c107.05$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.94633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-56.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes28c105.32$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1514337.1%53 W · 90 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes32c104.48$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0316453.7%88 W · 76 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes18c103.6$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.132718.5%5 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-38.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5019532.8%64 W · 131 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x743d…f77ebacked No43c89.32$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.112100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+91.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No57c84.62$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.391776.5%13 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick69cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f66…ad61backed No49c78$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.781464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8fb…72cdbacked No22c77$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.064934.7%17 W · 32 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf82f…8137backed Yes25c75.32$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.54643.5%20 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ac0…071ebacked Yes25c70.67$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No34c68.12$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.654148.8%20 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x269a…190ebacked Yes35c60$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-4.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe93f…6b7ebacked No40c58.43$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.17333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd8b…5d1bbacked Yes21c57.7$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52e5…2a2ebacked Yes56c53.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes42c53.36$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.238461.9%52 W · 32 L+7.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xad47…1d5abacked No66c53.36$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.142030%6 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f96…a041backed No30c52.93$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd862…f135backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2482…67b1backed Yes34c49.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179034.4%31 W · 59 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-12.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21b8…47f4backed Yes28c49.78$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.85540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed No67c48$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.84633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid+8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dec…cefabacked Yes51c46.57$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.895042%21 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x060a…fa8fbacked No24c42.78$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.38475%3 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.42per pick33cpaid+169.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes42c38.72$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.43619.4%7 W · 29 L-9.7wins-0.27per pick46cpaid-65.7%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No39c36.78$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.619021.1%19 W · 71 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b13…f125backed Yes29c36.58$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.61666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+125.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked No30c36.26$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.232128.6%6 W · 15 L+3.1wins+0.15per pick14cpaid+79.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3634…2fefbacked Yes74c35.14$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2650%0 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdad6…0d14backed Yes41c30.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.641338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x740a…51c9backed Yes50c30.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.13425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-53.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No48c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4519240.6%78 W · 114 L-20.3wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-36.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No58c29.33$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.43966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+20.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd283…e332backed Yes38c29.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes61c29.05$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.761369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+33.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbeb2…376dbacked Yes75c28.06$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.05633.3%2 W · 4 L-2.3wins-0.38per pick71cpaid-57.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0928…9d34backed Yes42c26.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112832.1%9 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d81…fe57backed Yes75c25.83$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.266150.8%31 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9fc…0637backed Yes45c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes55c22.1$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.112951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb1…bce7backed Yes55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf7d…cd9abacked Yes73c19.9$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b24…01abbacked No60c18.08$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.239851%50 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac48…5575backed Yes72c17.57$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aeb…3af2backed Yes72c15.52$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9473…5728backed Yes80c12.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.