Movies · resolved market
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 70m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e13faf4bd0345be6fa1380b516f15845befbd4a027f981976d6a44ef6a7234e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,418
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $147,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,418 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3ce0…59d5backed No | 0c | 33,247$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 23c | 9,949$2,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,681.9 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 22c | 9,050$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,051.35 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 55c | 8,162$4,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,675.07 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 51c | 6,739$3,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,298.21 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 18c | 6,003$1,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,951.13 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda73…4d41backed No | 72c | 5,510$3,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,967.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 28c | 4,699$1,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,394.94 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 33c | 3,219$1,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,160.97 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 29c | 1,943$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.38 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed No | 36c | 1,586$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.43 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c8…3652backed Yes | 37c | 1,527$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954.99 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 23c | 1,426$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,097.67 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 46c | 1,370$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.04 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 64c | 1,300$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.53 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…9b10backed Yes | 32c | 1,265$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.88 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9a…f183backed Yes | 38c | 1,215$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed No | 73c | 1,200$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.69 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056f…e487backed Yes | 61c | 976.84$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.84 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 779.24$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.68 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 35c | 777.73$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.21 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked Yes | 45c | 758.39$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.83 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…2baabacked Yes | 19c | 750.75$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed Yes | 27c | 721$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.78 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ca…be89backed No | 6c | 703.45$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…9811backed Yes | 70c | 700$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked No | 62c | 615$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.3 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…2372backed No | 62c | 600$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 67c | 590.78$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.78 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 66c | 538.54$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.1 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…71aebacked Yes | 75c | 523.43$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.43 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked Yes | 69c | 500$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.87 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94df…2dcebacked Yes | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +4.0wins | +0.31per pick | 46cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 40c | 494.02$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.02 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…7b96backed Yes | 61c | 438.11$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed Yes | 63c | 403.14$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.16 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 43c | 400.83$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.86 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 48c | 358.91$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.89 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 65c | 348.53$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.01 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 344.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 48c | 309.67$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…c798backed Yes | 25c | 298.12$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +98%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed Yes | 37c | 294$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.99 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 54c | 276.76$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.62 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9378…8672backed Yes | 19c | 271.49$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee1…fcf5backed Yes | 20c | 255.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.91 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 50c | 254.16$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.89 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa070…cd87backed No | 61c | 250$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…ab48backed Yes | 17c | 225$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…72cdbacked Yes | 46c | 212.32$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.69 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 69c | 207.24$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.52 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93e…7195backed Yes | 43c | 201.8$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.33 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +4.2wins | +0.28per pick | 25cpaid | +126.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 68c | 200$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 72c | 195.41$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.7 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4541…30d3backed Yes | 16c | 182.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.61 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 35cpaid | +197.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5d…d896backed Yes | 56c | 179.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x681b…8a5abacked Yes | 48c | 170$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.8 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed Yes | 55c | 170$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.69 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0928…9d34backed Yes | 61c | 164.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.51 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8085…ea17backed Yes | 16c | 153.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.69 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 12c | 147.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.01 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70c6…19c9backed Yes | 14c | 143.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +620.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4634…d158backed Yes | 44c | 132.85$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfcc…416cbacked Yes | 21c | 131.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +230.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 73c | 131.39$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17fa…abfbbacked Yes | 31c | 124.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 15c | 117.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.99 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c47…5245backed Yes | 64c | 114$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed Yes | 49c | 106.93$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.76 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3217…7f16backed No | 28c | 105.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 44c | 100.32$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.03 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 97.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce8…6414backed Yes | 62c | 96.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d5…7ca1backed No | 28c | 94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 24c | 93.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…eb72backed Yes | 29c | 92.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.33 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked Yes | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb77a…d769backed Yes | 58c | 86.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3954…4ccabacked Yes | 62c | 80.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb1…bce7backed No | 37c | 76.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…5d1bbacked No | 22c | 75.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 68c | 75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 23c | 74.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.31 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 62c | 73.18$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca12…ea03backed Yes | 70c | 69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 66c | 68.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c61…db2ebacked Yes | 17c | 63.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 17cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x269a…190ebacked Yes | 53c | 58.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked No | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x060a…fa8fbacked Yes | 23c | 50.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 33cpaid | +169.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a10…9977backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 33cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28cd…d99abacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd862…f135backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 28c | 49.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7e…8301backed No | 33c | 49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19db…7636backed Yes | 62c | 48.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…f125backed No | 30c | 48.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 47c | 46.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -9.7wins | -0.27per pick | 46cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 70m?this page
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 80m?No won
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 90m?No won
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 90m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.