TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 58% and 59%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$148,635
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$144,396

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $148,635 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes30c5,959$1,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,803.1414947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed Yes5c2,572$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.0523921.3%51 W · 188 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8401…a498backed Yes17c2,040$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.96119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick28cpaid-56.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x82aa…2393backed Yes16c1,907$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.291546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50e8…ac57backed Yes16c1,804$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.141050%5 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58d4…e1efbacked No12c1,741$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,525.12520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid+61.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6578…ba32backed No12c1,728$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,512.861050%5 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+164.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b72…cd8ebacked Yes18c1,509$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.1140%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe433…1700backed No13c1,437$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,257.38757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+72.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd77e…83a4backed Yes16c1,317$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.041010%1 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.29per pick39cpaid-87%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x14c1…6512backed No79c1,293$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.82250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9d9…bacbbacked Yes16c1,287$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.351241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae18…1132backed No19c1,254$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,017.132254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+33.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8507…7f61backed Yes16c1,216$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8996…9c76backed No79c1,199$946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.991861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid-11%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39dd…1bb5backed No12c1,192$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,050.733100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+291.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1502…be53backed No80c1,186$947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.65837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-33.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c2e…e025backed Yes21c1,135$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.491338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+55.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3702…829dbacked No13c1,125$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984.382100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+394.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb976…c213backed Yes21c1,107$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.58333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa938…a1ffbacked No13c1,034$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904.751040%4 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x533d…e5ecbacked No12c998$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$878.44540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+92.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad46…0918backed Yes16c988$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.65837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-49.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec92…1214backed Yes21c984$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.621747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+31.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b23…0d60backed No79c981$774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.991040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbbe…f1d5backed No79c926$731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.39757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+53.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaefa…f98ebacked Yes59c918$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.361020%2 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-67.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7289…4bffbacked Yes16c911$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe590…87bfbacked Yes16c910$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.87475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick40cpaid+70%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa457…1a93backed Yes16c904$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.741030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid+28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a59…a320backed No35c891$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.47757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+63.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd215…b4eebacked No79c851$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.56862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+27.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1056…5b18backed Yes16c848$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.141127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-38.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86a2…02c0backed Yes21c836$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.440%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe136…cacebacked No13c834$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.75450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+134.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d7c…a11bbacked Yes17c810$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.13475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+173.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x381c…dae1backed Yes16c798$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.87560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e3e…0959backed Yes18c773$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x523d…cc1dbacked No13c724$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+87.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6499…05d2backed No13c716$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26ad…990ebacked Yes21c715$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.871618.8%3 W · 13 L-3.2wins-0.20per pick39cpaid-69.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9c2d…ddd6backed Yes16c713$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.941163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+85.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe7db…c00cbacked Yes4c700.12$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.595014%7 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick16cpaid+26.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb2d…1dc7backed Yes4c682.09$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.17520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-72.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed No13c674$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.751225%3 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7086…f376backed Yes16c653$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.48540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-41.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x864a…9ed1backed Yes16c627$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.44560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+23.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd622…defcbacked Yes21c623$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.451662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+35.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2cb0…0d4cbacked Yes14c621$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.18520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid+96.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e57…6c04backed Yes21c602$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.021050%5 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+65.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7238…e52dbacked Yes18c587$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.25666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+93%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc336…9f48backed No55c577$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.121450%7 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-29.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0218…52c0backed Yes3c566$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.18559.1%5 W · 50 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid+54.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa22e…109cbacked Yes16c563$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.39366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+53.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2604…13ccbacked No13c560$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4901258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+49.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0c0…c4c9backed No12c557$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.931442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ab…d0a0backed Yes15c534$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.961353.8%7 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.27per pick27cpaid+142%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0184…23f6backed Yes17c524$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.461241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+41.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2247…96e8backed No10c501$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.4560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick30cpaid+186%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xea02…23d1backed Yes6c500.79$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+274.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x416c…8dcebacked Yes21c500$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.5520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid+15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e35…384fbacked No13c497$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.88933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f52…a35abacked No13c492$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.51060%6 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+81.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6159…7501backed No12c486$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.18475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick40cpaid+201.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f5c…91bfbacked No12c475$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.11457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+68.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc3c…d42ebacked Yes15c475$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.68922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick32cpaid+28.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed Yes12c469.91$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.533043.3%13 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf49…6cfebacked No13c463$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.13771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick40cpaid+152.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes5c456.49$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.441676.6%11 W · 156 L-0.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8624…b484backed No13c453$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.381050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+96.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdaee…bd71backed Yes16c450$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+52.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc911…fa2bbacked Yes16c430$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.51425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid+50.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2232…a794backed Yes16c427$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd29f…26b4backed Yes17c410$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.34771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+50.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6278…3a93backed No12c408$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.41560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+131.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff74…24f0backed Yes22c402$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.18850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19cd…f7ffbacked No13c393$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.881070%7 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+70%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd40d…b2fabacked No13c387$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.63771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick39cpaid+125%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a6f…deaebacked Yes21c382$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.630%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7eae…3562backed No10c361$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.26850%4 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+123.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6587…4f63backed No12c350$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.61838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No8c345$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.221,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02f8…6c22backed Yes18c341$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.68955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+20.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked Yes7c339.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.828430.3%86 W · 198 L+0.8wins0.00per pick30cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8de5…9416backed No79c337$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.11771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick48cpaid+22.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xde9c…b418backed Yes21c337$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.11520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-69.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8718…6741backed No79c315$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.46450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+31.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x671a…ee5abacked No11c308$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.81850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+74.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1b7…d913backed Yes15c308$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.97728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick42cpaid+20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d09…42b7backed Yes16c305$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.830%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xccc2…271abacked No79c297$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.67944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf955…bb33backed No13c291$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.631040%4 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+55.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdb7…6cd5backed No79c287$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.56862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+27.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5322…95e1backed Yes21c287$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.56837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-49.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7321…1812backed No79c285$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.131741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+37.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfbd…17c9backed No12c283$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.91633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid+61.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x425a…78cbbacked Yes16c277$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.32875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+59.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d58…34e0backed No11c275$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.58966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+117%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x95cc…f215backed Yes21c266$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.13520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes30c252.14$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.8499017.2%170 W · 820 L-148.8wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-61.5%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.