World Politics · resolved market
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 61%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42b725e77ecdbe092960892a03f5149dcc1d6b4767b33e5a84adb5cea34c2981
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,948
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ca9…37d1backed No | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 1c | 1,724$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,700.15 | 55 | 9.1%5 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed Yes | 10c | 1,655$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,487.01 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…c00cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,523$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,489.34 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed Yes | 10c | 1,498$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,346.7 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x874a…d584backed Yes | 28c | 1,416$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed No | 72c | 1,366$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.42 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…b2efbacked Yes | 10c | 1,347$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.61 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…49f3backed Yes | 10c | 1,173$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…55e4backed Yes | 16c | 1,125$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.75 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d2…39f0backed Yes | 16c | 1,118$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +517.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec0…76f4backed Yes | 10c | 999$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +261.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 70c | 977.78$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.11 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91d…91fdbacked Yes | 10c | 940$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e57…6c04backed Yes | 10c | 882$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 19c | 820.69$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.98 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed Yes | 19c | 743.11$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.94 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aec…fdafbacked Yes | 10c | 712$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +319.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 4c | 637.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.63 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed Yes | 10c | 593$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.51 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +168.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7775…6cb4backed Yes | 10c | 585$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +201.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea02…23d1backed Yes | 3c | 563.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.51 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +274.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6f…469fbacked No | 72c | 555$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed Yes | 28c | 536$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.31 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3be4…009abacked Yes | 48c | 518.88$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +136.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 8c | 477.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 140 | 27.9%39 W · 101 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9e…154abacked Yes | 49c | 448.7$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.39 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f87…3929backed Yes | 10c | 437$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.86 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +218.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…9708backed No | 59c | 383.6$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffa1…15bdbacked Yes | 10c | 381$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.52 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e0…ad86backed Yes | 30c | 369$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec3…3adcbacked No | 70c | 369$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.56 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb0…0d4cbacked Yes | 10c | 369$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29e2…6dc5backed Yes | 10c | 358$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +454.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3c…d42ebacked Yes | 10c | 353$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed Yes | 80c | 335.52$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab81…6e6dbacked Yes | 47c | 326.4$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x427e…5ab4backed No | 70c | 320$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed Yes | 30c | 320$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.04 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…e5a3backed Yes | 10c | 315$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.87 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bac…8684backed Yes | 32c | 268.66$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 15cpaid | +1,009.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x976c…c3cabacked Yes | 40c | 237.57$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.96 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed Yes | 10c | 236$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.93 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +199.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 5c | 228.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.82 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes | 44c | 204.83$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.65 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6469…c029backed Yes | 30c | 199.84$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.84 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +173.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8d…fc01backed Yes | 10c | 197$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.91 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +172.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf920…2febbacked Yes | 55c | 183$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.35 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed Yes | 10c | 162$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +116.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 44c | 139.76$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.93 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 44c | 137.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.32 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…e76cbacked Yes | 18c | 135.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +567.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…50ecbacked Yes | 21c | 120$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…ca2bbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.25 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…a018backed No | 64c | 96.6$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.62 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 49c | 95.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed Yes | 79c | 73.8$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0d…d3a5backed Yes | 75c | 72.74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 32 | 87.5%28 W · 4 L | +5.9wins | +0.19per pick | 69cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21c9…1b1abacked No | 42c | 67.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5085…d8a4backed Yes | 28c | 67.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 35c | 61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4869…509bbacked Yes | 48c | 59.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed Yes | 41c | 56.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 21c | 56.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe807…4d35backed Yes | 70c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 45c | 51.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 51.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 78c | 49.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed No | 53c | 44.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f7…274dbacked No | 28c | 36.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff1…4d1fbacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79a1…2d87backed No | 72c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43a9…faebbacked No | 73c | 24.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…c6b6backed No | 66c | 24.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 61%?this page
- Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 56% and 57%?No won
- Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 57% and 58%?No won
- Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 58% and 59%?No won
- Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 59% and 60%?No won
- Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 61% and 62%?No won
- Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be greater than 62%?No won
- Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 56%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.