Weather · resolved market
Will Seattle have less than 3 inches of precipitation in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfffbe066e81744dccf8e461251266c8fd5c946d9f0047081eab1a9bc9c7fe88b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57e4…a2e8backed Yes | 8c | 13,772$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Yes | 33c | 2,890$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3be4…009abacked No | 75c | 1,464$1,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.76 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 8c | 1,343$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.14 | 57 | 7%4 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c81…1f31backed No | 48c | 1,341$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1326…d13dbacked No | 78c | 1,303$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…75b7backed No | 77c | 1,205$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c9…bee7backed Yes | 23c | 981$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e7…ebdcbacked Yes | 30c | 853$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…1616backed No | 76c | 751$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.24 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14c1…6512backed Yes | 30c | 726$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1697…4cf6backed Yes | 22c | 720.99$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…644ebacked Yes | 23c | 650$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c7…be6fbacked Yes | 24c | 592$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 587.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66f2…2badbacked No | 70c | 563$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccb…6c69backed Yes | 22c | 558$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.76 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…6d0dbacked No | 70c | 532.09$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.09 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1658…cc7abacked No | 44c | 530$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +139.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00c2…1be5backed No | 70c | 518$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f2…95debacked Yes | 24c | 504$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.44 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x541a…1740backed No | 70c | 487$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68ba…0e6abacked No | 77c | 477$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…0c32backed Yes | 23c | 473$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.74 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed No | 77c | 473$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.74 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 15c | 387.96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 83 | 3.6%3 W · 80 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e17…0d52backed Yes | 30c | 380$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…0c57backed No | 70c | 366$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f404backed No | 77c | 348$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.78 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed Yes | 33c | 318$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.89 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked No | 67c | 318$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.89 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6853…0835backed No | 65c | 303.35$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48eb…4addbacked Yes | 12c | 279.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked Yes | 24c | 267$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.08 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…a002backed Yes | 24c | 263$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.17 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbc…d620backed No | 76c | 263$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…505cbacked No | 44c | 250$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 45c | 244$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.97 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd4…c334backed No | 77c | 226$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked Yes | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…ca2bbacked No | 59c | 199.67$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.29 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87fd…66bcbacked Yes | 23c | 185$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfe…6108backed No | 76c | 185$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aec…fdafbacked No | 77c | 185$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb976…c213backed Yes | 23c | 185$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…02c0backed Yes | 23c | 180$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…1c04backed No | 77c | 173$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…87bfbacked No | 70c | 163$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7acf…fa62backed Yes | 61c | 162.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff2…12d8backed Yes | 19c | 149.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…4bffbacked No | 77c | 141$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2a…e39ebacked No | 35c | 139.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +109.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23b9…6447backed Yes | 30c | 138$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 15c | 124.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 44c | 102.51$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.94 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3054…1282backed Yes | 56c | 88.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 69c | 87.66$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05b…8df1backed Yes | 24c | 77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…add3backed Yes | 24c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9377…2461backed Yes | 22c | 65.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dda…b441backed Yes | 43c | 61.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed No | 77c | 60.85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14d6…0851backed No | 50c | 59.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 22c | 51.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9859…0176backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf66…7887backed Yes | 40c | 42.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9e…154abacked Yes | 56c | 35.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43a9…faebbacked Yes | 50c | 35.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa503…1f64backed Yes | 56c | 33.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2726…b4e2backed Yes | 37c | 33.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fd…03a0backed Yes | 60c | 31.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af6…270abacked Yes | 55c | 31.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6d…ab6abacked Yes | 55c | 23.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 74c | 14.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Seattle have less than 3 inches of precipitation in January?this page
- Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in January?Yes won
- Will Seattle have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in January?No won
- Will Seattle have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in January?No won
- Will Seattle have between 6 and 7 inches of precipitation in January?No won
- Will Seattle have more than 8 inches of precipitation in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.