Weather · resolved market
Will Seattle have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3f2bf99d473712fe41555a2ef3bc337eb97b7bf28f05055b365e2bf0cb75c12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,954
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6469…17cdbacked Yes | 2c | 3,851$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf62…d923backed Yes | 10c | 3,003$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…efcabacked Yes | 22c | 927.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3be4…009abacked Yes | 13c | 746.9$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.63 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48eb…4addbacked Yes | 28c | 610.23$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.03 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6f41backed Yes | 18c | 603$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…7572backed Yes | 12c | 602$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…55e4backed Yes | 17c | 539.52$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.35 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed Yes | 14c | 476$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.64 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4faa…fecfbacked Yes | 11c | 435$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb73e…975ebacked Yes | 12c | 434$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7155…d866backed Yes | 11c | 392$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0caa…fb12backed Yes | 11c | 369$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 9c | 357.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 95 | 23.2%22 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…ee38backed No | 79c | 320$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…bcf0backed Yes | 11c | 257$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x656c…af94backed Yes | 12c | 245$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf429…969ebacked Yes | 9c | 197.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 10c | 191.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff7…a220backed Yes | 18c | 182$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 181.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa5…2380backed Yes | 11c | 179$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 76c | 170.51$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes | 17c | 159$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…6690backed Yes | 7c | 141.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9f9ebacked Yes | 14c | 141$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 120.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 17c | 109.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 71c | 108$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0a…c5c0backed Yes | 29c | 102.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a10…e7d3backed Yes | 18c | 102$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…00f3backed Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…d7b3backed No | 79c | 77.3$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +397.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a3…b461backed Yes | 15c | 71.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb9…590bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked Yes | 52c | 38.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Seattle have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in January?this page
- Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in January?Yes won
- Will Seattle have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in January?No won
- Will Seattle have between 6 and 7 inches of precipitation in January?No won
- Will Seattle have less than 3 inches of precipitation in January?No won
- Will Seattle have more than 8 inches of precipitation in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.