Weather · resolved market
Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33e6f1791549ea7e5aef304aa447e4290a81acb968e5fcce3846ffd00856b032
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x217e…09debacked Yes | 57c | 1,907$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2756…42efbacked Yes | 57c | 1,190$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.7 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…afb5backed Yes | 57c | 1,111$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.73 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…c454backed Yes | 24c | 1,064$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.64 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed No | 1c | 948.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4f…3b33backed No | 43c | 885$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.55 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccb…6c69backed Yes | 26c | 873$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.02 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ac…d8c5backed No | 43c | 829$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.47 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c90…17fbbacked No | 43c | 788$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed Yes | 57c | 786$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.98 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…0c32backed No | 74c | 774$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.76 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 17c | 761.98$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.04 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…ed0cbacked No | 43c | 749$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9279…9ca7backed No | 43c | 697$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.71 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -63%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…dd5fbacked No | 43c | 671$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.53 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…c6fbbacked No | 76c | 653$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.28 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x926a…3b1ebacked No | 43c | 616$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…6d0dbacked Yes | 69c | 579.15$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.15 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…92cabacked Yes | 15c | 565$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.25 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa22e…109cbacked Yes | 22c | 499$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.22 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28c9…99aabacked Yes | 57c | 475$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked Yes | 57c | 466$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.38 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked No | 43c | 466$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.38 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1658…cc7abacked Yes | 40c | 453.51$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +139.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…a2e8backed No | 10c | 405.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed No | 43c | 404$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.72 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…bd74backed No | 44c | 398$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.12 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked No | 76c | 396$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.96 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.29per pick | 50cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…b75ebacked No | 74c | 387$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.38 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6f41backed No | 43c | 349$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.07 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…72f1backed Yes | 57c | 338$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.34 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325a…a634backed No | 43c | 334$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.62 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…115ebacked Yes | 57c | 326$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.18 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 29c | 324.94$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.69 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 38c | 315.64$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.77 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…08d2backed Yes | 26c | 312$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.88 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4744…e229backed No | 74c | 312$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.88 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7da…ebb4backed No | 5c | 278.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe95b…1f15backed Yes | 26c | 270$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…6b65backed Yes | 15c | 268$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 34cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaec9…3213backed No | 43c | 258$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.94 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x381c…dae1backed Yes | 57c | 237$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.91 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…6d90backed Yes | 15c | 228$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…5b6bbacked Yes | 57c | 225$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.75 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed No | 43c | 206$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.58 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed Yes | 56c | 183$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.52 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbc…3b01backed No | 10c | 175.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c51…a829backed Yes | 56c | 164$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7e…7dfdbacked No | 43c | 163$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 16c | 161.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed No | 43c | 144$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed No | 78c | 141$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.98 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 13c | 137.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 95 | 23.2%22 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 44c | 135.62$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb83e…10fcbacked Yes | 57c | 133$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Yes | 66c | 130.55$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7786…7914backed Yes | 57c | 129$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +136.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb1…6de8backed Yes | 26c | 117$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 33c | 113.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.64 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…588ebacked No | 43c | 106$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4e…9487backed Yes | 79c | 105.25$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f93…6611backed No | 56c | 102$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b46…0c23backed Yes | 44c | 102$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 41c | 101.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…9f70backed No | 74c | 99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.26 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 72c | 91.56$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +181.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed Yes | 50c | 84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked No | 32c | 77.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 34c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 38c | 62.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 29c | 51.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9859…0176backed Yes | 56c | 51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac2…f35fbacked No | 78c | 38.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 48c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7614…e538backed Yes | 67c | 35.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 39c | 32.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked No | 43c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0f…3942backed Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…55e4backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in January?this page
- Will Seattle have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in January?No won
- Will Seattle have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in January?No won
- Will Seattle have between 6 and 7 inches of precipitation in January?No won
- Will Seattle have less than 3 inches of precipitation in January?No won
- Will Seattle have more than 8 inches of precipitation in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.