AI · resolved market
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 30% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfea26f4227463246669149d51edeff20aef0be1c9f7e0e66fb3cf0f80bcd5e64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 7,627$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 4c | 2,206$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.36 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 10c | 978$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.88 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcde9…d705backed Yes | 62c | 906$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.28 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…4bffbacked No | 38c | 906$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.28 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 901.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f2…6a72backed Yes | 70c | 848$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…990ebacked Yes | 63c | 835$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.95 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed Yes | 68c | 818$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.76 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed No | 38c | 776$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.92 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ee…9238backed Yes | 74c | 766$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.16 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…588ebacked No | 26c | 652$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.52 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…7f4fbacked Yes | 63c | 607$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.59 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed No | 30c | 540$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed No | 32c | 523$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.36 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2247…96e8backed No | 30c | 394$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.2 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f8…6c22backed Yes | 70c | 394$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.2 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…bd71backed No | 37c | 389$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.93 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…be04backed Yes | 61c | 340$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…069abacked No | 6c | 330$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked No | 37c | 322$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.14 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…735dbacked No | 30c | 308$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x427e…5ab4backed No | 32c | 295$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked No | 37c | 285$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.45 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 276.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…bd49backed No | 37c | 251$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes | 63c | 251$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.87 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 11c | 133.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 17c | 120.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…757abacked No | 26c | 114$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 13c | 90.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21d5…6f93backed Yes | 78c | 87.74$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -67%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x722f…f17fbacked Yes | 70c | 79$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb8…eea6backed No | 30c | 79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +47%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 61c | 61.28$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…941ebacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 30% on Humanity’s Last Exam?this page
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes won
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No won
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No won
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.