TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Named storm forms before hurricane season?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$348,823
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$349,030

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $348,823 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 580 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x12c2…aa71backed Yes48c4,600$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,200.461442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8be6…41aebacked No56c3,000$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3201100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ab…56e8backed Yes49c2,961$1,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,443.95955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+30.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe36c…a6f0backed Yes43c2,165$923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923.371450%7 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+93.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6558…e485backed Yes45c1,958$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881.1119.1%1 W · 10 L-4.2wins-0.38per pick47cpaid-84.3%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xc5cf…90e6backed No58c1,810$1,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761.762142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1639…e706backed Yes50c1,793$897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91af…95c8backed No53c1,759$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828.961050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x169a…55e4backed No53c1,709$914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$795.251553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9774…6d3cbacked No57c1,693$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.991353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe72c…bbf0backed Yes39c1,676$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.641361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick57cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b8d…24efbacked No50c1,599$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$799.5520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-60%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6587…4f63backed No57c1,585$903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681.55757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid-7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d17…1e5ebacked Yes43c1,567$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.871717.6%3 W · 14 L-4.1wins-0.24per pick42cpaid-52.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x36b0…f5bebacked No55c1,564$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.81650%8 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+95.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1eaa…b550backed Yes43c1,562$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c51…a829backed Yes40c1,557$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.01728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a37…141abacked No65c1,420$918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.2540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x848d…76c1backed Yes45c1,410$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.381741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x246f…0ab2backed Yes45c1,372$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.41020%2 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-58.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe433…1700backed No56c1,348$755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.121275%9 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+38.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x367b…48dabacked Yes45c1,339$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.552040%8 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1832…af9ebacked No56c1,337$755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.771250%6 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+71.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcac…f545backed Yes32c1,325$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.331540%6 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64c2…c527backed Yes45c1,323$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.351450%7 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x293b…09a9backed Yes48c1,316$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.161442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea5a…e6aebacked Yes41c1,302$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.921241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid+36.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7635…9ae0backed No56c1,301$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.91966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+29.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82a7…afb5backed Yes43c1,301$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.431546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6546…c454backed No57c1,300$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.08966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+64.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x117f…088ebacked No57c1,286$731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.29757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6b9…d0c7backed No56c1,283$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.771936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a54…db64backed Yes43c1,280$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-60.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x43c9…47c1backed No57c1,279$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.97728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd622…defcbacked No56c1,273$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.632842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd41…3796backed Yes44c1,244$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.321957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+20.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bd4…c334backed Yes43c1,236$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.481145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee4e…aa5abacked No55c1,235$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.751154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…1598backed No56c1,221$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.071050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb82b…dd5fbacked Yes29c1,215$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.6825%2 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-64.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6e36…2479backed Yes45c1,211$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.391520%3 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-68.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6787…8884backed No56c1,208$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.951241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-27.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0caf…e065backed No57c1,200$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5161030%3 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-48.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd727…6e2ebacked Yes43c1,182$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.26922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-69.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cae…c0eebacked No55c1,169$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.05757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+87%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…0da3backed No55c1,166$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.71346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+30.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc771…e858backed Yes48c1,142$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.131030%3 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-54.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x43d5…2e11backed No59c1,127$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.641952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b1a…99f7backed No57c1,126$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.18366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x293b…c83bbacked No64c1,099$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.951435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3a0…b7bdbacked Yes43c1,098$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.411225%3 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-63.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb28…74f4backed Yes43c1,093$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.991338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83be…6f94backed No55c1,086$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.7862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+76.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8401…a498backed No52c1,067$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.641450%7 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-10.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x59f3…a7fabacked Yes43c1,064$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.521050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaec9…3213backed No57c1,064$606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.521241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-34.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…cd55backed No50c1,062$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531825%2 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-57.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe309…44c2backed Yes45c1,060$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4771833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca67…703cbacked Yes44c1,053$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.171353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70e7…4a70backed Yes30c1,051$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6cb…ac3dbacked No55c1,040$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-55.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x61a8…f658backed No57c1,034$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.621650%8 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1bf…a751backed No56c1,020$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.231442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-34.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes6c1,018$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7747136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff5d…4e58backed Yes30c1,017$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.11030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f5c…91bfbacked No56c1,015$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.52055%11 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+53.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5214…95c9backed Yes44c1,007$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.081136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid+26.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaefa…f98ebacked Yes45c1,007$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.151533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b74…93f7backed Yes41c1,006$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.592040%8 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2950…ffeabacked Yes43c1,006$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.581241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-37.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb73e…975ebacked No57c997$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.711154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick39cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4883…ce56backed Yes43c997$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.71728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-56.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3bc…43e9backed Yes44c980$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.2742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x416c…8dcebacked Yes43c977$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.11520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick39cpaid+53.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf51b…bf74backed No55c975$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.751758.8%10 W · 7 L+3.5wins+0.20per pick38cpaid+109.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes1c973.22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6272624.8%180 W · 546 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e72…7de5backed No55c967$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.15616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick42cpaid-69.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6956…dd15backed No57c963$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.09580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+68.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfda4…1058backed Yes45c951$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.95520%1 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.43per pick63cpaid-74.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2b4b…1fb3backed Yes50c948$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+45.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5c9…8fafbacked Yes24c939.1$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.2550%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…a432backed No57c938$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.34366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+36%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1dfd…946bbacked Yes35c934$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.981625%4 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-63.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7eae…3562backed No56c934$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.521145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+92.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc94a…ac22backed Yes45c930$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.51225%3 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-60%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No55c929.93$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.322123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-49.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93c8…7861backed Yes43c926$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.18333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b1…7754backed No57c912$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.16560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc351…08f7backed No53c900$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f7d…a315backed Yes43c897$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.71955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce55…1796backed Yes44c894$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.361233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce25…4e7dbacked No57c893$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.991747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36b8…ac4cbacked Yes43c890$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.71060%6 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+64.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c90…17fbbacked Yes37c889$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.16742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa347…2a40backed No65c886$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.241450%7 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc70…50c0backed No57c877$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.11862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+28.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x993c…eae0backed Yes45c877$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.65837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick27cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2232…a794backed No53c876$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.72560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+112.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x965d…7773backed Yes43c871$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.631861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+14.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x668b…3884backed No55c865$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.25944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.