Weather · resolved market
Named storm forms before hurricane season?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d9534e655c68bd1811bdb721704d7434c6ce214a69043e9e2c4a13c25db33f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $348,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $349,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $348,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 580 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12c2…aa71backed Yes | 48c | 4,600$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200.46 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8be6…41aebacked No | 56c | 3,000$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…56e8backed Yes | 49c | 2,961$1,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,443.95 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…a6f0backed Yes | 43c | 2,165$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.37 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6558…e485backed Yes | 45c | 1,958$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.1 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.38per pick | 47cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed No | 58c | 1,810$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.76 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1639…e706backed Yes | 50c | 1,793$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91af…95c8backed No | 53c | 1,759$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.96 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…55e4backed No | 53c | 1,709$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.25 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9774…6d3cbacked No | 57c | 1,693$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…bbf0backed Yes | 39c | 1,676$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.64 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…24efbacked No | 50c | 1,599$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6587…4f63backed No | 57c | 1,585$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked Yes | 43c | 1,567$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.87 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x36b0…f5bebacked No | 55c | 1,564$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.8 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…b550backed Yes | 43c | 1,562$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c51…a829backed Yes | 40c | 1,557$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.01 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…141abacked No | 65c | 1,420$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed Yes | 45c | 1,410$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.38 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x246f…0ab2backed Yes | 45c | 1,372$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.4 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…1700backed No | 56c | 1,348$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.12 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked Yes | 45c | 1,339$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.55 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1832…af9ebacked No | 56c | 1,337$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.77 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed Yes | 32c | 1,325$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.33 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed Yes | 45c | 1,323$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.35 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…09a9backed Yes | 48c | 1,316$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.16 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked Yes | 41c | 1,302$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.92 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7635…9ae0backed No | 56c | 1,301$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.91 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…afb5backed Yes | 43c | 1,301$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.43 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…c454backed No | 57c | 1,300$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.08 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x117f…088ebacked No | 57c | 1,286$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.29 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed No | 56c | 1,283$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.77 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…db64backed Yes | 43c | 1,280$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43c9…47c1backed No | 57c | 1,279$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.97 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked No | 56c | 1,273$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.63 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed Yes | 44c | 1,244$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.32 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd4…c334backed Yes | 43c | 1,236$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.48 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee4e…aa5abacked No | 55c | 1,235$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.75 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…1598backed No | 56c | 1,221$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.07 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…dd5fbacked Yes | 29c | 1,215$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed Yes | 45c | 1,211$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.39 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…8884backed No | 56c | 1,208$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.95 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…e065backed No | 57c | 1,200$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…6e2ebacked Yes | 43c | 1,182$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.26 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…c0eebacked No | 55c | 1,169$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +87%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…0da3backed No | 55c | 1,166$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.7 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc771…e858backed Yes | 48c | 1,142$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.13 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed No | 59c | 1,127$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.64 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…99f7backed No | 57c | 1,126$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…c83bbacked No | 64c | 1,099$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.95 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a0…b7bdbacked Yes | 43c | 1,098$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.41 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb28…74f4backed Yes | 43c | 1,093$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.99 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83be…6f94backed No | 55c | 1,086$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…a498backed No | 52c | 1,067$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.64 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59f3…a7fabacked Yes | 43c | 1,064$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.52 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec9…3213backed No | 57c | 1,064$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.52 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…cd55backed No | 50c | 1,062$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…44c2backed Yes | 45c | 1,060$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…703cbacked Yes | 44c | 1,053$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.17 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70e7…4a70backed Yes | 30c | 1,051$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cb…ac3dbacked No | 55c | 1,040$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61a8…f658backed No | 57c | 1,034$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.62 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bf…a751backed No | 56c | 1,020$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.23 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 6c | 1,018$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.77 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff5d…4e58backed Yes | 30c | 1,017$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked No | 56c | 1,015$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…95c9backed Yes | 44c | 1,007$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.08 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked Yes | 45c | 1,007$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.15 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed Yes | 41c | 1,006$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.59 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked Yes | 43c | 1,006$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.58 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb73e…975ebacked No | 57c | 997$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.71 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4883…ce56backed Yes | 43c | 997$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bc…43e9backed Yes | 44c | 980$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x416c…8dcebacked Yes | 43c | 977$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed No | 55c | 975$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.75 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 973.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e72…7de5backed No | 55c | 967$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…dd15backed No | 57c | 963$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.09 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfda4…1058backed Yes | 45c | 951$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.43per pick | 63cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4b…1fb3backed Yes | 50c | 948$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c9…8fafbacked Yes | 24c | 939.1$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…a432backed No | 57c | 938$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +36%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked Yes | 35c | 934$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.98 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…3562backed No | 56c | 934$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.52 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…ac22backed Yes | 45c | 930$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 55c | 929.93$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.32 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…7861backed Yes | 43c | 926$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b1…7754backed No | 57c | 912$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc351…08f7backed No | 53c | 900$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…a315backed Yes | 43c | 897$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.71 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…1796backed Yes | 44c | 894$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.36 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked No | 57c | 893$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.99 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…ac4cbacked Yes | 43c | 890$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c90…17fbbacked Yes | 37c | 889$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed No | 65c | 886$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.24 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc70…50c0backed No | 57c | 877$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.11 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…eae0backed Yes | 45c | 877$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…a794backed No | 53c | 876$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed Yes | 43c | 871$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.63 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x668b…3884backed No | 55c | 865$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.