World Politics · resolved market
Will Keir Starmer say "Opportunity" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4e14e8432cd6dca10d1ca50bd86dd5a2bd627418ff220a3401642abbf5dab28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2092…b6d8backed Yes | 10c | 9,888$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,899.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe1…191dbacked No | 78c | 1,445$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…73f7backed Yes | 22c | 1,445$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +484.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…23c3backed No | 63c | 1,385$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +142.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c19…77cdbacked Yes | 19c | 963$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +160.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed Yes | 63c | 956$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.72 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed Yes | 63c | 917$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.29 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…7d8abacked Yes | 63c | 873$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.01 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2b…f025backed No | 37c | 852$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…75b7backed Yes | 63c | 767$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…e974backed Yes | 37c | 707$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a5…b42cbacked No | 37c | 591$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…b3c2backed No | 37c | 583$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed Yes | 63c | 578$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.86 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe794…321cbacked Yes | 18c | 554$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f33…81f6backed Yes | 19c | 548$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.88 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +113.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc2…297bbacked No | 37c | 522$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7c…5a5fbacked No | 37c | 509$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…5b6bbacked Yes | 19c | 413$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.53 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed Yes | 37c | 394$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.22 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa406…bd18backed No | 38c | 393.9$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.68 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…4bffbacked No | 37c | 390$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…d0a4backed Yes | 62c | 385.84$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.62 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed No | 37c | 367$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.79 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 63c | 367$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.79 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed No | 73c | 308$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.84 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…827bbacked Yes | 27c | 308$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 48cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…aa07backed Yes | 37c | 284$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +145%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed Yes | 18c | 257$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.74 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c51…a829backed No | 37c | 196$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…9a60backed No | 37c | 171$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd215…b4eebacked No | 37c | 168$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcae4…ccecbacked Yes | 19c | 158$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…f215backed No | 37c | 104$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370b…5f2cbacked No | 36c | 41.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 28c | 39.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +11.1wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e4…9cedbacked Yes | 72c | 31.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…757fbacked Yes | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7982…86c4backed Yes | 69c | 15.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Keir Starmer say "Opportunity" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?this page
- Will Keir Starmer say "Affordable" or "Affordability" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Ally" or "Allied" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Constructive" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Denmark" or "Greenland" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Dialogue" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "International" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Iran" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 15+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Reform" 3+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Rules-based" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Thank you" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Ukraine" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Venezuela" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.