World Politics · resolved market
Will Keir Starmer say "Reform" 3+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x537c6dcb2e74d95c0641d202f9377810e5ab13e93ffff8d0b776417526220169
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xccc2…271abacked Yes | 69c | 1,170$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9a…cc24backed Yes | 78c | 1,065$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…e4c8backed Yes | 69c | 937$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…ea40backed No | 19c | 825$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5f…d395backed Yes | 69c | 791$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d66…fc54backed No | 31c | 681$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.89 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…d0a4backed No | 30c | 670.13$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.13 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b1…4336backed No | 31c | 637$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc2…297bbacked Yes | 79c | 596$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 71c | 544$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.24 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…87bfbacked No | 31c | 502$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +70%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes | 80c | 501$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.8 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…141abacked No | 21c | 500$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d2…3e62backed No | 31c | 499$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.31 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a8…7efabacked No | 29c | 497$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5f…81c0backed Yes | 78c | 490$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb132…6943backed No | 22c | 457$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.46 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7238…e52dbacked Yes | 78c | 457$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +93%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa680…c13fbacked Yes | 69c | 444$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4f…3b33backed No | 22c | 439$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +118.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…7861backed No | 22c | 412$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa406…bd18backed Yes | 76c | 394$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.44 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425a…78cbbacked No | 18c | 384$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.88 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…735dbacked No | 22c | 384$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0367…1c15backed Yes | 69c | 383$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +171.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef37…f2bcbacked No | 31c | 369$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.61 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…ac4cbacked No | 29c | 363$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.73 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e5…d252backed Yes | 71c | 363$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.73 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked No | 31c | 333$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.77 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 54cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba3d…cdfabacked No | 20c | 322$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 26cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…99f7backed No | 31c | 317$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…73a0backed No | 20c | 294$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.2 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5829…e46bbacked Yes | 80c | 294$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…3188backed Yes | 48c | 286.11$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.55 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4b…1fb3backed No | 18c | 258$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.56 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 41cpaid | +140.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked No | 19c | 253$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.93 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf53c…00acbacked No | 31c | 224$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 41cpaid | +140.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf49…6cfebacked No | 22c | 199$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.22 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 40cpaid | +152.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6c…26e0backed No | 31c | 190$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +135.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfec9…b7c0backed No | 20c | 179$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b2…9d96backed No | 18c | 178$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.96 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed Yes | 69c | 158$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.02 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked No | 19c | 132$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.92 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc157…728cbacked No | 32c | 130$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x370b…5f2cbacked No | 23c | 128$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed No | 19c | 113$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.53 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed No | 31c | 110$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6813…39e6backed No | 31c | 108$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.52 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f2…95debacked No | 21c | 96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +90%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4b…7ec6backed No | 28c | 80.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.51 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +115.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…d837backed No | 22c | 78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.84 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +73%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d4…5052backed No | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf351…6284backed Yes | 69c | 55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0d…d3a5backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 32 | 87.5%28 W · 4 L | +5.9wins | +0.19per pick | 69cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…9cefbacked No | 29c | 47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed Yes | 69c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5aa…c200backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2947…4cf4backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 70c | 14.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Keir Starmer say "Reform" 3+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?this page
- Will Keir Starmer say "Affordable" or "Affordability" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Ally" or "Allied" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Constructive" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Denmark" or "Greenland" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Dialogue" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "International" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Iran" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 15+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Opportunity" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Rules-based" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Thank you" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Ukraine" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Venezuela" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.