World Politics · resolved market
Will Keir Starmer say "Dialogue" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27e71e07188105b22ed3d14a24ffee3e3153f2ca400db0ba8b3ab91c794f9cea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04d4…be7cbacked Yes | 29c | 1,300$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf8…ded2backed Yes | 29c | 985$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.65 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…a320backed No | 71c | 971$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.59 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bc…5d9ebacked No | 71c | 888$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…dc10backed Yes | 32c | 869$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.08 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +76%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef37…f2bcbacked Yes | 34c | 859$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.06 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14d4…cc6fbacked Yes | 29c | 833$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.57 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3f…6e13backed No | 71c | 813$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d22…da8bbacked No | 66c | 812$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.08 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…e6aabacked No | 69c | 550$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…1307backed Yes | 31c | 550$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x486b…3ea7backed Yes | 25c | 518$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…28eabacked No | 75c | 493$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…e0ecbacked No | 75c | 471$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b92…7585backed No | 75c | 461$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a41…1160backed Yes | 25c | 461$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c1…0791backed No | 56c | 456.43$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked Yes | 29c | 452$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.08 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +62%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…9cefbacked No | 71c | 452$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.08 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x195a…7c31backed Yes | 63c | 444.93$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9f9ebacked Yes | 27c | 435$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…5b6bbacked No | 73c | 435$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.45 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50eb…c59fbacked No | 68c | 409$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…0451backed No | 68c | 398$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed Yes | 32c | 398$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.36 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked No | 68c | 393$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.76 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c6…c2dfbacked Yes | 32c | 393$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed No | 71c | 389$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.81 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…f562backed No | 68c | 334$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed Yes | 25c | 321$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked Yes | 35c | 299$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.65 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +70%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54ae…57e8backed No | 65c | 299$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x611f…1f84backed No | 68c | 295$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…e4c8backed Yes | 32c | 295$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked Yes | 35c | 272$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…7572backed No | 65c | 272$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…141abacked No | 71c | 268$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5374…952abacked Yes | 29c | 268$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes | 33c | 220$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9f…c0d4backed No | 68c | 140$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3068…083dbacked No | 71c | 133.76$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ba…3e8bbacked Yes | 38c | 131.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2092…b6d8backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8885…5792backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +3.2wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +443.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 44c | 97.36$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…7d89backed Yes | 53c | 93.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…e61bbacked No | 71c | 92$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 23c | 75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 150 | 14%21 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 57c | 60.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd87…315cbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x720f…1740backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…87bfbacked No | 67c | 48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +70%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43c9…47c1backed No | 75c | 47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…3159backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 46c | 36.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 38c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa906…84e4backed No | 71c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…76f2backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Keir Starmer say "Dialogue" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?this page
- Will Keir Starmer say "Affordable" or "Affordability" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Ally" or "Allied" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Constructive" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Denmark" or "Greenland" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "International" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Iran" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 15+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Opportunity" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Reform" 3+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Rules-based" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Thank you" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Ukraine" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Keir Starmer say "Venezuela" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.