AI · resolved market
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88a98f68c8e4f920a7f42e89e05cb4ed47171dbeee3ca3120a711fd6f88c2a32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,405
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,036
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,405 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6513…8c10backed Yes | 14c | 2,552$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.74 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 19c | 1,658$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.93 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 15c | 1,303$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.2 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed No | 69c | 1,072$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.99 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4be9…a1a7backed Yes | 25c | 999.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c7…db97backed Yes | 28c | 976.36$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01d6…0511backed Yes | 13c | 911$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.43 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 50cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…2261backed Yes | 16c | 890$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…bd74backed No | 64c | 852$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.72 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x943b…fe84backed Yes | 30c | 824$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 54cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed Yes | 36c | 811$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.96 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 16c | 798.1$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.75 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa22e…109cbacked Yes | 13c | 752$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.76 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0627…82b1backed Yes | 31c | 648.43$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08c9…bee7backed Yes | 19c | 638$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.22 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 65c | 625.52$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.36 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ed…ec87backed Yes | 18c | 595$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf737…37aabacked Yes | 34c | 575.94$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 24c | 561.15$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.7 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b1…7754backed Yes | 13c | 531$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f5…3464backed Yes | 38c | 525.61$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6e…9870backed Yes | 36c | 524.57$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x427e…5ab4backed Yes | 14c | 507$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.98 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed Yes | 14c | 467$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.38 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…7dcfbacked No | 80c | 446.99$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6537…fcecbacked Yes | 13c | 446$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…a677backed Yes | 26c | 418.64$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45f5…e073backed Yes | 8c | 415.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…2a2fbacked Yes | 20c | 387.84$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.72 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 19c | 371.37$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.83 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +19.9wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xa78e…74b0backed Yes | 13c | 338$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 73c | 294.29$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.79 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad63…f3ecbacked Yes | 37c | 282.91$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 19c | 266$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.54 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bd…af16backed Yes | 25c | 238.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…cd36backed No | 64c | 235$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.6 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…281abacked Yes | 15c | 206.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66cf…9eaabacked Yes | 36c | 204.65$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +275%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed Yes | 14c | 201$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d98…676bbacked Yes | 23c | 199.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b8…7102backed Yes | 58c | 172.05$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 20c | 170.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…8652backed Yes | 22c | 168.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66f2…2badbacked Yes | 14c | 166$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed Yes | 23c | 142.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffc…9107backed Yes | 74c | 135.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 71c | 117.62$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47d…fb65backed Yes | 18c | 108.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed Yes | 18c | 107$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed No | 62c | 106.86$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 23c | 73.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -19.3wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 70c | 71.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08a0…5676backed Yes | 30c | 68.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 18c | 68.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9acc…42cebacked Yes | 28c | 65.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1584…71b6backed No | 63c | 62.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…2700backed Yes | 25c | 60.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0455…e814backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 62c | 58.35$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 24c | 57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e0…8761backed Yes | 22c | 45.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf46f…e41cbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…f312backed No | 67c | 39.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0e…fc07backed Yes | 31c | 37.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 72c | 30.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed No | 35c | 30.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70c2…4eb2backed No | 77c | 29.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 60c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -54%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 77c | 16.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?this page
- Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.