AI · resolved market
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ea223c43a3b49f16151d52e5104e85566c0f8d392f28bf0a186584bdab6658a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,235
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,235 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6513…8c10backed No | 17c | 1,757$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.44 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…e8e9backed No | 15c | 1,460$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked No | 15c | 1,196$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.4 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbc…3b01backed No | 3c | 1,155$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 70c | 1,096$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.25 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…75b7backed No | 15c | 1,022$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.3 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8d…aa9bbacked Yes | 80c | 1,017$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed No | 15c | 791$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.65 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5299…f785backed Yes | 73c | 605.3$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 21c | 533.64$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.38 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9652…d0a0backed Yes | 77c | 500$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 23c | 456.94$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.92 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 40c | 433.17$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed No | 5c | 403.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 26c | 389.63$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.04 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 19c | 386.09$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.58 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +19.9wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…08d2backed No | 15c | 385$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b8…7102backed Yes | 78c | 357.64$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3684…9669backed No | 15c | 317$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0455…e814backed No | 10c | 300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…2a2fbacked No | 50c | 240$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed Yes | 58c | 236.26$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.83 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Yes | 80c | 224.2$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…a677backed No | 24c | 221.78$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x642d…3de0backed Yes | 49c | 215$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd29f…26b4backed No | 15c | 207$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 70c | 197.3$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…2a29backed Yes | 73c | 164.67$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.47 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…281abacked No | 20c | 128.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 23c | 123.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 30c | 120.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 17c | 119.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 70c | 118.85$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 13c | 111.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 31c | 104.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47d…fb65backed No | 21c | 103.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…ab75backed Yes | 59c | 102.12$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3942backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec8…82eabacked Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda9d…b298backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 44c | 97.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.65 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed No | 24c | 95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 70c | 91.82$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x365c…c731backed No | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e6…2d79backed Yes | 77c | 80.3$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…6f9dbacked Yes | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 29c | 68.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -19.3wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x48eb…4addbacked No | 19c | 66.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9acc…42cebacked Yes | 66c | 65.45$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 65c | 57.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c94…e048backed No | 28c | 57.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e8…78dfbacked Yes | 68c | 56.26$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…f312backed No | 31c | 53.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…59f9backed Yes | 43c | 52.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5af8…bf5cbacked No | 20c | 51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608d…3933backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed Yes | 63c | 42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06ee…eacabacked Yes | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 26c | 41.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5156…84c1backed Yes | 65c | 41.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed No | 27c | 40.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x036c…ae62backed No | 75c | 40.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce4…5f17backed Yes | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0e…06a5backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bd…af16backed Yes | 74c | 35.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 33c | 33.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 30.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x207b…7283backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb24e…c073backed Yes | 77c | 26.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ce…1da9backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…ff6bbacked Yes | 79c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb0…6d5abacked Yes | 80c | 24.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 45c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f6…7b7fbacked Yes | 75c | 22.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf65f…4d71backed Yes | 54c | 21.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc58b…8db6backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b5…6562backed Yes | 75c | 14.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…0f53backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?this page
- Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.