Movies · resolved market
Will A Friend of Dorothy win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70573bec08bdbf9309a235a43564b69fe51f4dea221eab7addeb24da1fd3035c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56eb…076abacked Yes | 22c | 3,300$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.79 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Yes | 1c | 2,047$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 21c | 1,406$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.36 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed Yes | 18c | 1,007$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.26 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08c9…bee7backed Yes | 12c | 961$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 24c | 933.47$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.25 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 23c | 921.49$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.31 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…e1babacked Yes | 18c | 729$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.22 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…6070backed No | 77c | 720.95$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.37 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ead…6c75backed Yes | 21c | 692$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.32 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf53c…00acbacked No | 79c | 692$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.32 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Yes | 15c | 634$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.1 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 21c | 609.86$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.31 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 26c | 600.54$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.14 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 18c | 553.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.13 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 18c | 546$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.28 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…2a32backed Yes | 26c | 535$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.19 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76fd…e8c4backed Yes | 22c | 495$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66a7…6569backed No | 78c | 495$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.9 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 20c | 486.19$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.03 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ee…9238backed Yes | 12c | 474$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed Yes | 13c | 379$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…aff0backed Yes | 15c | 366$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Yes | 19c | 319.2$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.26 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 76c | 313.27$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.39 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b92…7585backed Yes | 19c | 309$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed Yes | 19c | 288$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8433…6e0fbacked Yes | 13c | 282$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 25c | 274$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.33 | 183 | 44.3%81 W · 102 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked Yes | 22c | 250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…2036backed Yes | 25c | 240$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.65 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 9c | 238.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3c…a29ebacked Yes | 15c | 208$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde45…8238backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…b788backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 79c | 195.02$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 28c | 185.86$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7810…b011backed Yes | 22c | 183.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -44%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 179.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 18c | 171.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc853…9d37backed No | 73c | 167.1$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.71 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd44…f151backed Yes | 21c | 166.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 166.03$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.57 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8733…0626backed Yes | 18c | 164.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ac…d8c5backed Yes | 13c | 161$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed Yes | 34c | 159.82$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.27 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 155.25$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…b0c1backed No | 75c | 144.6$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3c…61e2backed Yes | 22c | 131.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +70%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 19c | 114.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b2…0eb2backed Yes | 15c | 106$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 74c | 101.27$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…935fbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe17d…9632backed Yes | 22c | 91.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccd…1ec9backed Yes | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x27c1…f4acbacked Yes | 22c | 89.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +148.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Yes | 23c | 84.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -5.4wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…d3bebacked Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 76c | 77.94$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Yes | 18c | 77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 77c | 73.13$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72b2…5548backed Yes | 24c | 69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Yes | 23c | 67.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…e4a9backed No | 73c | 58.47$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…9844backed Yes | 27c | 53.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 76c | 48.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…d9e6backed Yes | 22c | 46.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed Yes | 22c | 46.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x482c…828dbacked Yes | 27c | 42.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 33c | 38.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc9…c447backed No | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 78c | 30.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27e…a9d0backed No | 65c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b9…66acbacked No | 71c | 25.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will A Friend of Dorothy win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Butcher's Stain win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jane Austen's Period Drama win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will The Singers win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Two People Exchanging Saliva win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.