Movies · resolved market
Will Two People Exchanging Saliva win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddcfc4f1c3ea7e3dbe0b39075d304be8ca03a320a5533fa453487baaf987e389
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $370,746
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $352,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $370,746 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 308 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1bc0…4429backed Yes | 27c | 52,138$14,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,000 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd6…84cdbacked Yes | 1c | 29,308$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Yes | 10c | 22,400$2,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,248.23 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x274a…98bfbacked Yes | 51c | 20,758$10,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa525…1e7bbacked Yes | 0c | 20,045$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd544…4d5ebacked Yes | 6c | 18,482$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked No | 74c | 15,672$11,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,127.18 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85ba…5b74backed No | 80c | 11,050$8,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,254.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5489…1633backed Yes | 19c | 6,947$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceae…1cedbacked Yes | 1c | 6,900$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…2f22backed No | 59c | 6,587$3,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,686.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 77c | 5,857$4,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,347.11 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 2c | 5,500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4985…28bdbacked No | 51c | 5,255$2,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,574.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe16e…4d5dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,900$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedea…8b39backed Yes | 20c | 4,799$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 69c | 4,028$2,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,248.65 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked No | 49c | 3,760$1,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,906.06 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked Yes | 8c | 3,614$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2a…f17cbacked Yes | 3c | 3,455$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea1d…90f0backed Yes | 53c | 2,822$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…b0a0backed No | 55c | 2,660$1,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,192.85 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 47cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…f919backed Yes | 44c | 2,100$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.61 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6794…b4cdbacked Yes | 25c | 2,011$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 51c | 2,008$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.75 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 46c | 2,004$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.02 | 183 | 44.3%81 W · 102 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked No | 62c | 2,000$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.99 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27fc…ddbcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,796$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed No | 77c | 1,791$1,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.09 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…3020backed No | 78c | 1,500$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 44c | 1,500$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7741…29f0backed Yes | 18c | 1,431$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked No | 54c | 1,336$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +60%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a6…8fb7backed No | 55c | 1,244$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…9850backed Yes | 3c | 1,202$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 51c | 1,200$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.4 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x270e…2930backed Yes | 21c | 1,185$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e39…fc4cbacked No | 54c | 1,169$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 52c | 1,112$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.01 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…5ac3backed Yes | 6c | 1,100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…e4a9backed No | 51c | 1,065$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.2 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49fa…f904backed Yes | 7c | 1,047$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d0…422fbacked Yes | 50c | 1,037$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.88 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x904d…8fd8backed Yes | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab1…8807backed Yes | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7acf…c90abacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fea…077dbacked Yes | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e3…2e0dbacked No | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked Yes | 48c | 973.81$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 57c | 927$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.39 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb20…40a6backed No | 49c | 925.95$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 54c | 925.51$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.83 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed No | 56c | 920$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.8 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed Yes | 44c | 915$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.6 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -37%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 33c | 890.34$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.14 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadbd…93f9backed No | 58c | 809$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.78 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4999…cc96backed Yes | 12c | 799.98$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.05 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…0137backed No | 57c | 789$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…cd36backed Yes | 44c | 758$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.52 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x926a…3b1ebacked No | 57c | 751$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.93 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd708…b9d2backed Yes | 51c | 743.31$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc853…9d37backed No | 56c | 742.1$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.27 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 49c | 725.74$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.33 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 75c | 721.13$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.7 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked Yes | 43c | 707$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.01 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2901…f4d6backed Yes | 44c | 705.67$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x709e…2746backed Yes | 53c | 698.59$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…23c3backed No | 58c | 689$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.31 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…a794backed No | 61c | 688$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.32 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1055…7dd4backed Yes | 44c | 681.97$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 47c | 669.05$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.42 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…c454backed No | 61c | 645$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.55 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 634.01$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.49 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…dd5fbacked Yes | 42c | 620$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…3258backed Yes | 43c | 617$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.31 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -4.2wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed No | 56c | 577$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed No | 57c | 566$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.38 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…2036backed No | 50c | 560$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb728…fc92backed Yes | 13c | 554.17$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x605c…83dcbacked Yes | 39c | 546$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.94 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a8…2fb3backed Yes | 53c | 525.89$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…9ed0backed Yes | 15c | 502.09$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4644…f249backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 79c | 499.98$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d66…fc54backed Yes | 43c | 496$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.28 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed Yes | 43c | 493$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ce…2213backed Yes | 42c | 492$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x628b…6861backed Yes | 40c | 482.93$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…46cebacked No | 54c | 475$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…917fbacked Yes | 20c | 449.34$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Yes | 45c | 444.6$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed Yes | 43c | 426$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.18 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43c9…47c1backed Yes | 46c | 422$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 404.2$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.05 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23b9…0b21backed Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b7…9cfabacked Yes | 74c | 394.29$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 46c | 392.91$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.76 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb8…eea6backed No | 57c | 390$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f38…39f2backed Yes | 9c | 380.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Two People Exchanging Saliva win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will A Friend of Dorothy win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Butcher's Stain win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jane Austen's Period Drama win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will The Singers win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.