TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Two People Exchanging Saliva win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$370,746
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$352,325

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $370,746 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 308 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1bc0…4429backed Yes27c52,138$14,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,000540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+64.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcd6…84cdbacked Yes1c29,308$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.3120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Yes10c22,400$2,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,248.23714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick30cpaid-74.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x274a…98bfbacked Yes51c20,758$10,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,60010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa525…1e7bbacked Yes0c20,045$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.8540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd544…4d5ebacked Yes6c18,482$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2001361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.21per pick40cpaid+16%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked No74c15,672$11,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,127.18771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85ba…5b74backed No80c11,050$8,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,254.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5489…1633backed Yes19c6,947$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,350250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xceae…1cedbacked Yes1c6,900$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693221.9%7 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x133b…2f22backed No59c6,587$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,686.81250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No77c5,857$4,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,347.112445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+23.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes2c5,500$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105311.3%6 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4985…28bdbacked No51c5,255$2,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,574.93425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-51%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe16e…4d5dbacked Yes1c4,900$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedea…8b39backed Yes20c4,799$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972.3450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No69c4,028$2,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,248.652133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked No49c3,760$1,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,906.063938.5%15 W · 24 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaeed…074bbacked Yes8c3,614$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.16616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-62.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c2a…f17cbacked Yes3c3,455$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9570%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xea1d…90f0backed Yes53c2,822$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe72b…b0a0backed No55c2,660$1,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,192.85683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.37per pick47cpaid+88.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x533d…ceeebacked Yes2c2,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x833c…f919backed Yes44c2,100$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.61666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6794…b4cdbacked Yes25c2,011$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.37450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-27.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No51c2,008$1,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$975.752937.9%11 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No46c2,004$918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.0218344.3%81 W · 102 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid0%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked No62c2,000$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.992441.7%10 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick26cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x27fc…ddbcbacked Yes1c1,796$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83e8…7b89backed No77c1,791$1,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.097936.7%29 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9977…3020backed No78c1,500$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3302100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+65.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No44c1,500$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8454238.1%16 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7741…29f0backed Yes18c1,431$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.16944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked No54c1,336$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.27650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+60%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x22a6…8fb7backed No55c1,244$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.12650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf693…9850backed Yes3c1,202$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed No51c1,200$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.44930.6%15 W · 34 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-41.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x270e…2930backed Yes21c1,185$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2504829.2%14 W · 34 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e39…fc4cbacked No54c1,169$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.81333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-37.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No52c1,112$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.0112938.8%50 W · 79 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedf7…5ac3backed Yes6c1,100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x094a…e4a9backed No51c1,065$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.23240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49fa…f904backed Yes7c1,047$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23d0…422fbacked Yes50c1,037$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.8880%0 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x904d…8fd8backed Yes49c1,020$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ab1…8807backed Yes37c1,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.82450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7acf…c90abacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-57.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fea…077dbacked Yes41c1,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86e3…2e0dbacked No59c1,000$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc44d…935cbacked Yes48c973.81$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.43633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes57c927$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.394250%21 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb20…40a6backed No49c925.95$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.22633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid+9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03ed…c077backed No54c925.51$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.837448.6%36 W · 38 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ecb…b5e3backed No56c920$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.82646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb547…a237backed Yes44c915$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.62733.3%9 W · 18 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-37%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x919d…f1b1backed Yes33c890.34$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.14922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadbd…93f9backed No58c809$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.78955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4999…cc96backed Yes12c799.98$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.051711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b8…0137backed No57c789$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.27728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde9f…cd36backed Yes44c758$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.521030%3 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-39.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x926a…3b1ebacked No57c751$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.931080%8 W · 2 L+3.2wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+90.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd708…b9d2backed Yes51c743.31$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3802227.3%6 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-61.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc853…9d37backed No56c742.1$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.272548%12 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No49c725.74$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.3329926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked No75c721.13$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.72171.4%15 W · 6 L+3.7wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+28.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4d17…1e5ebacked Yes43c707$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.013256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+29.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2901…f4d6backed Yes44c705.67$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.55425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-68.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x709e…2746backed Yes53c698.59$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x646f…23c3backed No58c689$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.31825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-52.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2232…a794backed No61c688$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.32862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1055…7dd4backed Yes44c681.97$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No47c669.05$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.425621.4%12 W · 44 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-41.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6546…c454backed No61c645$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.551136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes13c634.01$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.4914337.1%53 W · 90 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb82b…dd5fbacked Yes42c620$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.4742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+96.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39b4…3258backed Yes43c617$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.3190%0 W · 9 L-4.2wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x7b23…0d60backed No56c577$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.88837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1d7…8c45backed No57c566$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.382540%10 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-32.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f07…2036backed No50c560$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2801827.8%5 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb728…fc92backed Yes13c554.17$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701233.3%4 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick17cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x605c…83dcbacked Yes39c546$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.941540%6 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-35.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0a8…2fb3backed Yes53c525.89$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+54.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d85…9ed0backed Yes15c502.09$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753363.6%21 W · 12 L+4.6wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+21.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4644…f249backed Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No79c499.98$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10410537.1%39 W · 66 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d66…fc54backed Yes43c496$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.282133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x968f…a539backed Yes43c493$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.99955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+38%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02ce…2213backed Yes42c492$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x628b…6861backed Yes40c482.93$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1ec…46cebacked No54c475$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.5837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8dec…917fbacked Yes20c449.34$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Yes45c444.6$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xae18…1132backed Yes43c426$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.183141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43c9…47c1backed Yes46c422$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.12944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No53c404.2$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.0536538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x23b9…0b21backed Yes15c400$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-46.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32b7…9cfabacked Yes74c394.29$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.16333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid+103.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes46c392.91$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.7620841.8%87 W · 121 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bb8…eea6backed No57c390$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.7955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+24.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f38…39f2backed Yes9c380.23$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352030%6 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.