TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will The Singers win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$129,264
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$147,157

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,264 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdcd6…84cdbacked No2c17,584$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.3320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x117a…01babacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed No1c10,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Yes43c7,049$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,048.89540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+64.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No60c5,861$3,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,535.2929926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked No7c2,277$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.84771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No2c2,260$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92a6…8b84backed Yes78c1,875$1,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83e8…7b89backed No21c1,448$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.017936.7%29 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa647…d77dbacked Yes26c1,046$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.185046%23 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No76c1,013$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.9748236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1aee…c139backed No2c999$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.551010%1 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-62%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes76c959.96$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.0813321.1%28 W · 105 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes25c790.74$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.777619.7%15 W · 61 L+0.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1930…691cbacked Yes30c730.79$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.432740.7%11 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick32cpaid-6.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8de5…9416backed Yes20c647$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.01933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid+5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7534…d51bbacked No74c622$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.151833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8733…0626backed Yes27c588.7$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+28.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes60c534$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.5314628.1%41 W · 105 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-29.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x87fd…66bcbacked No80c529$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.08650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2a3…e321backed Yes72c516.15$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes67c513$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.772441.7%10 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick26cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x05f2…95debacked No74c488$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.58633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+114.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b63…bb9cbacked Yes26c488$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.582347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43d5…2e11backed No67c484$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.341330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-48%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd08…bd74backed Yes33c483$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.681250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x270e…2930backed Yes42c473.99$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.994829.2%14 W · 34 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ab1…8807backed Yes27c459.99$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.25450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a8…2fb3backed Yes32c420.1$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+54.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes39c402.69$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.545621.4%12 W · 44 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-41.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…0da3backed Yes25c396$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.81862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+40.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d58…34e0backed No75c394$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.321457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No40c381.07$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.9312938.8%50 W · 79 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb86e…e0ecbacked Yes24c381$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+80.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b4f…3b33backed No76c381$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.04560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+104.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xceae…1cedbacked Yes27c341.9$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.393221.9%7 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b1a…4221backed No74c336.29$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.693721.6%8 W · 29 L-5.7wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-69.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdaa1…eb3abacked Yes33c322$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.45887.5%7 W · 1 L+3.1wins+0.39per pick49cpaid+112.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8e9e…bd49backed No74c280$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.04944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03a4…a89dbacked Yes18c273$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.95333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick16cpaid+89.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes24c272.98$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.428528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes24c269.05$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.7636538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x557a…9f70backed No67c250$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick56cpaid+67.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9279…9ca7backed Yes33c249$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.33580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+141.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4061…f5ebbacked No75c247$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.511136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cbe…04b4backed Yes25c245$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.02540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+90.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked No38c240.05$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.1513534.8%47 W · 88 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No69c228.54$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.138332.5%27 W · 56 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-38.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9859…0176backed No67c227$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.18540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-31%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72b2…5548backed Yes32c202.43$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.391741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+13.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes29c173.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.55219.2%10 W · 42 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-60.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b47…9930backed Yes28c172$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.52665.4%17 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.21per pick44cpaid+44.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Yes59c170.53$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.531250%6 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8015…da39backed Yes29c170.24$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.241421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-24.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes23c164$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.7118444%81 W · 103 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Yes48c158$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.971717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-69.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x904d…8fd8backed Yes32c157.6$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.62944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Yes24c156.52$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.291216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-47.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Yes26c154$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.965244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No70c152.15$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.1715641.7%65 W · 91 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes29c150.93$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.864930.6%15 W · 34 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fbe…df9cbacked Yes30c150$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid+11.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa71c…d0a8backed No74c144$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.991020%2 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-52.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe2a0…4230backed No75c133.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100875%6 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22f2…90d7backed No72c127$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.192142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa6a…21c3backed No80c118$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.931457.1%8 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+67.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked Yes21c117.95$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.113324.2%8 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes15c116$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.41,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes21c102.47$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.9110632.1%34 W · 72 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No68c100$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.223041.7%96 W · 134 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No74c100$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.64139%16 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaac9…58babacked Yes29c99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+248.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce55…1796backed Yes33c96$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.13540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe95b…1f15backed No67c95$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.46250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8ae…bb88backed No67c94$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.61323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-55%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed No40c84$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4314240.1%57 W · 85 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f77…b78bbacked Yes28c71.86$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+79.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27a5…18d2backed Yes29c69.69$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.69450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+50.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff4b…d019backed Yes31c69.05$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.561118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-56.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes23c63.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.6917821.3%38 W · 140 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes36c63.61$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.920841.8%87 W · 121 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes25c62.02$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.681549.7%15 W · 139 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9551…8c45backed No52c55$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.581442.9%6 W · 8 L-3.3wins-0.24per pick67cpaid-40.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes22c54.27$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.341,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7741…29f0backed Yes28c53.67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.67944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ccd…1ec9backed Yes25c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.52245.5%10 W · 12 L+4.2wins+0.19per pick26cpaid+65.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x49dd…2a32backed Yes25c49.47$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.123923.1%9 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-52%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa113…93f4backed Yes30c49.34$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.345625%14 W · 42 L-0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x611f…1f84backed No72c45$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.31944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x476c…ce52backed Yes24c43.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+23.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No72c40.06$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.826641.7%111 W · 155 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked No75c40$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9824634.6%85 W · 161 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No70c40$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.848351.8%43 W · 40 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb920…7922backed No72c40$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.884445.5%20 W · 24 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7234…4c92backed No71c37.79$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.93825%2 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-63.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe0a4…d314backed No72c33$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7544…0caebacked No75c33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.65450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+33.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No71c30.04$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3619440.2%78 W · 116 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4aab…cf43backed No73c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.752544%11 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-22.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x74c3…aa33backed No72c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.