TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x27c1…f4ac

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
122
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 58 out of 100; worst Middle East at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT5335.8%19 W · 34 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 53 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$641Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$641.07
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,981Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,980.61
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$652Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$651.94
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$550Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$549.67
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$7,020Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$7,019.55
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.4
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$985Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$984.68
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$109.15
Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,057Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+50.9%+$538.09
Will Cyprus be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$520Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$212.09
Will France be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$67.99
Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$3,159Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+46.9%+$1,480.19
Will Australia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$800Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+110.7%+$885.6
Will Romania be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$3,939Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+105.3%+$4,148.03
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$1,021Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+155.9%+$1,591.9
Will Ukraine be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$2,161Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,160.73
Will France be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$105
Will Latvia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$174
Will Latvia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$44
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+72.6%+$108.95
Will San Marino advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.83
Showing 25 of 53 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2045%9 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,060Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+31.8%+$337.32
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$198
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$366Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$366
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$366Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$366
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$306Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$306
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$1,080Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+140.7%+$1,520
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$735Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$734.99
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.38
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$540Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$539.95
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$149.99
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$556Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+43.9%+$244
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,566Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+66%+$1,034
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,124Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+42.3%+$476
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$236Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$236
Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$120
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$483Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$217
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$249Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+60.5%+$150.8
Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+300%+$149.99
US military action against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$740Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$739.99
All 20 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+148.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Movies — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$202
Will I Lied to You - Sinners win Best Original Song at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$26
Will Come See Me in the Good Light win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+95.4%+$195.32
Will A Friend of Dorothy win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Sinners win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.65
Will Retirement Plan win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will Wunmi Mosaku win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.6
Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+370.6%+$189
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$156
Will Robert Aramayo win Best Actor at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+1,392.5%+$186.58
Will Wunmi Mosaku win Best Supporting Actress at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+920%+$138
Will "I Swear" win Best Casting at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+67.1%+$13.43
All 14 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+36.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$228Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$172
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$244
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$427Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$427
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+321.5%+$321.54
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$2,128Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,128.15
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$290Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$290
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$280
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$345Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+44.9%+$155
All 9 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick12cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT5100%5 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+73.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT5100%5 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+70.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lighter Airdrop on December 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$187Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+66.7%+$124.34
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$95.04
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Nov 26, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+127.3%+$25.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$519Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+38.7%+$200.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$95.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Sep 18, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$189
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.