Movies · resolved market
Will Robert Aramayo win Best Actor at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5dabb72942b4347c039915ef2ba7dea809aa220fbc21d8d5fbc386b72be01671
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94bc…8ce0backed Yes | 10c | 2,306$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,066.27 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 7c | 972.84$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.29 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb04e…d4aabacked Yes | 15c | 836.4$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.4 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked Yes | 6c | 527.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.26 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 441.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.54 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 7c | 426.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.72 | 111 | 4.5%5 W · 106 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 72c | 386.23$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.56 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4255…3f69backed Yes | 11c | 242.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +129.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 214.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.52 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6660…c786backed Yes | 10c | 208.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +128.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27c1…f4acbacked Yes | 7c | 199.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.58 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +148.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 7c | 187.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.55 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb2…590abacked Yes | 10c | 175$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.94 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +178.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 7c | 165.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.95 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 8c | 150$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.55 | 74 | 6.8%5 W · 69 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 8c | 140.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.57 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…0f57backed Yes | 14c | 137.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.93 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01e…455abacked Yes | 11c | 118.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +817.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba7e…5f27backed Yes | 9c | 111.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +437.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae7…3e12backed Yes | 35c | 44.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.18per pick | 33cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Robert Aramayo win Best Actor at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?this page
- Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?No won
- Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?No won
- Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?No won
- Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.