Movies · resolved market
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbafdccc3fee9aa9b1b26b010018c2acaba0181838158b9c2d2b7ce4e0cc3dba2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 23c | 1,103$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.35 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 80c | 1,070$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.36 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 70c | 961.7$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.73 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…a320backed No | 24c | 930$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.8 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…1598backed No | 24c | 831$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.56 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…83e5backed Yes | 76c | 764$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 21c | 701.59$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.31 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…336dbacked Yes | 75c | 596.76$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.19 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc853…9d37backed No | 22c | 590.25$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.85 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 21c | 563.8$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.32 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6587…4f63backed No | 24c | 559$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.84 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…0c57backed Yes | 76c | 551$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.76 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed Yes | 78c | 500$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…eadcbacked Yes | 76c | 440$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa756…b167backed Yes | 76c | 399$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed Yes | 80c | 387.68$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.01 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes | 77c | 370.1$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.02 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 79c | 362.29$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.28 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked Yes | 72c | 326$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.72 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…758bbacked No | 28c | 326$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.72 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…a2debacked No | 28c | 309$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +38%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…2e4abacked Yes | 72c | 309$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed No | 23c | 303$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.31 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +4.6wins | +0.33per pick | 38cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked Yes | 77c | 303$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.31 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e7…ebdcbacked Yes | 74c | 294$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.56 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked Yes | 76c | 291$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.16 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 25c | 290.37$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.77 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x647e…88c8backed No | 26c | 228$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.72 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 18c | 218$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.52 | 265 | 41.9%111 W · 154 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…7922backed Yes | 78c | 215$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.65 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 21c | 200$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.66 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 74c | 188$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.58 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…2550backed No | 28c | 187$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.64 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -56%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea90…0f8fbacked Yes | 72c | 187$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.64 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb2…590abacked No | 22c | 186.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.72 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +178.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10df…04a9backed No | 20c | 181.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.67 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 21c | 169.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.77 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Yes | 76c | 165.05$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…275ebacked No | 24c | 137$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +116.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 22c | 133.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.74 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdca…05f7backed Yes | 79c | 126.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +22.0wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +88%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 20c | 110.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.4 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…59afbacked No | 30c | 106.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.06 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 29c | 102.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.64 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 210 | 9.5%20 W · 190 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed No | 21c | 98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.42 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 30c | 90$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.1 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…d78ebacked No | 18c | 87.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.84 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 75c | 81.68$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.59 | 183 | 44.3%81 W · 102 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7685…d406backed No | 21c | 71.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef37…f2bcbacked No | 26c | 66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 75c | 59.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…6069backed No | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 31c | 45.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 69c | 45.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42ee…d049backed Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae7…3e12backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.18per pick | 33cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 60c | 39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8195…4ca3backed Yes | 79c | 30.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…cf43backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c54…98cdbacked Yes | 77c | 25.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…3d0abacked Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…9ac8backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 79c | 18.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +97.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa769…7ce3backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?this page
- Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?No won
- Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?No won
- Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?No won
- Will Robert Aramayo win Best Actor at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.