TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf936…59af

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
46
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Weather, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 56 out of 100; worst Movies at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick34cpaid-54.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
Movies — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.13
Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.54
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.23
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+201.1%+$29.51
Will All the Empty Rooms win Best Documentary Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.54
Will Zendaya attend the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.67
Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 3 awards at the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.48
Will Catherine O'Hara win Best Actress in a Comedy Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$11.85
Will Wuthering Heights be the highest grossing movie this weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+40.8%+$7.03
Will "One Battle After Another" win Best Film at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$25.9
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+238.5%+$75.06
Will "Sinners" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$25.95
Will "Good Luck, Have Fun, Don't Die" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$14.21
Will "The Lincoln Lawyer: Season 4" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$39.4
Will "Tyler Perry's Joe's College Road Trip" be the top US Netflix movie this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$26.5
Will "Tyler Perry's Joe's College Road Trip" be the top global Netflix movie this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$12.53
Will "Cold Storage" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$16
All 17 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick39cpaid-68.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Olympics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+26.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+211.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+162.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$17.08
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+216.7%+$24.16
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA reach $200 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+122.2%+$12.42
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $170 end of February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$16.25
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+300%+$34.41
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+239.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$17.78
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the March Meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.52
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $75 by end of February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$16.72
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Feb 19, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Solana dip to $80 February 16-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$19.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Dollar Tree (DLTR) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.17
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Feb 21, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$13.2
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.