Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d763e37fe0eaed22af1fae2aece062d4e09ccfb32988f7f7f187df998469374
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $117,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $119,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 237 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x261f…2fa4backed No | 6c | 21,000$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,845 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8195…145cbacked No | 5c | 19,507$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,625.97 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 38c | 10,996$4,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,801.18 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked No | 71c | 10,511$7,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,072.43 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed Yes | 72c | 3,589$2,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,590.13 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 55c | 2,285$1,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,254.42 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4355…c5d4backed Yes | 56c | 2,235$1,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,251.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…9545backed No | 17c | 2,167$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,807.96 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4c…6840backed Yes | 72c | 2,080$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbc…d4adbacked No | 44c | 2,000$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed No | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.96 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd85…e5b5backed No | 36c | 1,766$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a62…5ff7backed Yes | 78c | 1,643$1,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,276.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +234.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 9c | 1,632$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,477.84 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b2…a321backed No | 19c | 1,100$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…efeebacked No | 47c | 998.95$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 38c | 983.28$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.85 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 50c | 974.78$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.11 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc9…63b2backed Yes | 69c | 922.36$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb25b…5c94backed Yes | 53c | 901.8$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.98 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 57cpaid | +28%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 68c | 878.53$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.43 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 37c | 871.15$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.37 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6da…7e3ebacked Yes | 59c | 841.2$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked No | 25c | 728.71$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.11 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8682…24e5backed Yes | 52c | 712.17$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.13 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…22cbbacked Yes | 53c | 675.6$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…3d00backed Yes | 54c | 630$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.9 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 28c | 623.4$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.34 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 31c | 574.23$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.74 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff36…d5b7backed No | 49c | 559$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.15 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0451…73fdbacked Yes | 61c | 542.04$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd172…956abacked Yes | 56c | 536.74$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 14c | 529.62$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.49 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.23per pick | 33cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked No | 5c | 519.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.42 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +98%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed No | 45c | 514$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.54 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked No | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked No | 6c | 500$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 4c | 499.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed No | 27c | 499.98$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.98 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.36per pick | 54cpaid | +134.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x474e…e133backed Yes | 51c | 493.69$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed Yes | 44c | 472.26$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.86 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76c9…3222backed Yes | 50c | 459$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.5 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed Yes | 56c | 445.35$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78e1…10e6backed Yes | 61c | 443.84$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Yes | 71c | 422.17$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.41 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 37c | 414.73$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.01 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 67c | 413.33$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.73 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b1…9643backed Yes | 54c | 407.02$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1438…c697backed Yes | 78c | 406.14$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.79 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef1…67d3backed Yes | 75c | 401.34$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…5166backed Yes | 50c | 400.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 64c | 369.19$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.43 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07e1…9010backed Yes | 53c | 362.95$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 45c | 340.13$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.07 | 84 | 10.7%9 W · 75 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa819…4310backed Yes | 56c | 334.37$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.81 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…b3b0backed Yes | 56c | 332.85$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.37 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7021…411dbacked Yes | 56c | 327.38$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.26 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c19…c63cbacked Yes | 56c | 324.33$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.59 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x203e…b7e1backed Yes | 56c | 320$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.2 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b24…adbebacked Yes | 56c | 314.53$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.09 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ba…ab39backed Yes | 59c | 302.02$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.44 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd910…187abacked Yes | 63c | 301.72$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccb0…a676backed Yes | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed No | 45c | 291.53$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.44 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x75c8…af83backed Yes | 72c | 281.42$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.37 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…505abacked No | 42c | 276.21$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc096…103abacked Yes | 53c | 271.68$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.66 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa04…66e7backed Yes | 52c | 270$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.5 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0937backed No | 39c | 241.92$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…7cb3backed Yes | 52c | 240.02$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 49c | 217.77$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.54 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 48c | 215.16$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.62 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6899…d72dbacked Yes | 47c | 208.4$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed Yes | 48c | 207.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c8…34efbacked Yes | 79c | 202.91$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10c0…a15ebacked Yes | 74c | 200.4$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.29 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked No | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x608d…3933backed Yes | 48c | 200$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed No | 26c | 200$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…f36fbacked Yes | 74c | 191.17$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…4557backed No | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 52c | 187$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.24 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83f6…62f8backed Yes | 62c | 182.47$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ff…3d33backed No | 57c | 176.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…3cf9backed No | 37c | 175.54$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.01 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked No | 80c | 173.92$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +189.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6e…2100backed Yes | 48c | 166.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…92b8backed Yes | 54c | 166.5$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 36c | 165.38$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.64 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1b…4b36backed Yes | 64c | 151.25$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed Yes | 55c | 149.34$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.26 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf341…0037backed Yes | 59c | 147.9$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…ed80backed No | 39c | 139.38$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.63 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed No | 69c | 138.32$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x76ef…ce36backed Yes | 51c | 138$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.88 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 56cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked No | 47c | 135.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…79ddbacked Yes | 74c | 121.14$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x491d…f681backed Yes | 58c | 120.07$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd39…39ecbacked Yes | 54c | 120$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?this page
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?No won
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?No won
- Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.