Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8afd4f8cefbfdaac663861b75f618e3f13518da2e2039b558183b1b407581efa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes | 71c | 12,883$9,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,782.5 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked No | 10c | 1,974$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.81 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 37c | 1,323$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.43 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 2c | 1,204$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf22…5473backed No | 26c | 1,167$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff36…d5b7backed Yes | 28c | 1,014$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.82 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20fb…e5fabacked No | 8c | 927.01$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.16 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 807.19$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a62…5ff7backed Yes | 15c | 777$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +234.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 14c | 694.81$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.22 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…5166backed Yes | 13c | 617.22$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.98 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 9c | 600.47$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.02 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +98%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 70c | 464.24$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.86 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 59c | 339.01$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.01 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…69d8backed Yes | 29c | 299.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.99 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 10c | 288.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.72 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 13c | 210$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.5 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed No | 72c | 200$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.61 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5b…4ef4backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed Yes | 28c | 190.62$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.74 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 189.43$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.59 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 18c | 186.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.64 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 34c | 180.91$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 47c | 173$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.85 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 67c | 151.02$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed Yes | 31c | 149.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.59 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 34c | 148$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…3cf9backed Yes | 28c | 121.6$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.94 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb2…376dbacked No | 80c | 121$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.2wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd39…39ecbacked Yes | 35c | 120$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 22c | 110.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.35 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.28per pick | 18cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 68c | 108.52$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.9 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Yes | 21c | 108.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.4 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccc6…0c3cbacked Yes | 19c | 105.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.7 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x341a…973dbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +74%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9623…c118backed Yes | 33c | 92.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +140%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3131…997ebacked Yes | 18c | 81.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.81 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7b…bd5dbacked No | 69c | 71.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 67c | 61.06$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…62a0backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…020abacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x491d…f681backed Yes | 27c | 58.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 77c | 54.95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x573b…f847backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9517…7960backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 64c | 49.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd4…2d42backed Yes | 27c | 48.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +267%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e21…66c0backed Yes | 32c | 46.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8878…7c79backed Yes | 36c | 40.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 68c | 40.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a6…995cbacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2c…80c6backed Yes | 31c | 33.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +221.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…e492backed No | 70c | 32.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…1b39backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…0f13backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6794…852ebacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce19…6edfbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258a…52a2backed Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1da5…5ed2backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ad…9e91backed No | 70c | 28.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe55e…bb3bbacked No | 72c | 25.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x269a…190ebacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe0…192abacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 65c | 17.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 79c | 14.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?this page
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?No won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?No won
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?No won
- Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.