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Movies · resolved market

Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 3 awards at the Oscars?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$53,399

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,399 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 184 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes79c9,580$7,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,046.9717751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e0e…bf45backed No36c1,396$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500120%0 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7c14…5783backed No18c1,356$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.16742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47eb…8195backed Yes77c1,337$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.511662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+38.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed No25c1,249$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.933721.6%8 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-53.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes71c1,172$829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.0724634.6%85 W · 161 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e07…6a8ebacked Yes78c1,100$853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7170…ed44backed Yes69c1,088$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.282152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ec7…f874backed Yes74c999.94$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.993100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6eac…92cabacked Yes61c940$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.61361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+32.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x848d…76c1backed No39c870$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.32951.7%15 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22f2…90d7backed No28c837$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.362142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b6f…6890backed No31c741$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.71742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x541c…c462backed Yes73c704.14$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.99955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid-23.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5565…9184backed No23c704$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick36cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed No19c686$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.474030%12 W · 28 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+59.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe24a…fc69backed No40c670$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+26.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bb8…eea6backed Yes62c654$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.52955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+24.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x656c…af94backed Yes72c637$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.36757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No21c633.94$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.6623530.6%72 W · 163 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9d9…bacbbacked No23c633$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.593056.7%17 W · 13 L+4.5wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+87.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcd44…f151backed Yes79c632.04$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.047839.7%31 W · 47 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes60c627$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.85345.3%24 W · 29 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6897…63b6backed Yes66c623$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.82540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No17c613.33$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.2816741.9%70 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f61…c03ebacked No34c597$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.98633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-46.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3395…7c66backed Yes67c593.06$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.551250%6 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+49.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x83e8…7b89backed No27c566.83$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.767936.7%29 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes70c564.29$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.7828528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6b9…de6dbacked No23c546.71$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.510331.1%32 W · 71 L+0.5wins0.00per pick31cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed No23c524.6$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.822045%9 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17be…e4a5backed No23c504.79$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf351…6284backed Yes74c475$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.51546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39b4…3258backed No26c442$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.9290%0 W · 9 L-4.2wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No21c430$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.6619640.3%79 W · 117 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes77c412.49$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.4915739.5%62 W · 95 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50eb…c59fbacked No38c368$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.84560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5395…9d41backed No31c367$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.771580%12 W · 3 L+4.6wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+89.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xe02b…e86dbacked Yes69c364$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.84977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick54cpaid+50.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c51…a829backed Yes66c336$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.24475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+64.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec92…1214backed No34c336$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.244645.7%21 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x272d…9e36backed Yes78c329.99$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.52944.8%13 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-28.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No17c310.12$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.668752.9%46 W · 41 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4f…728abacked No20c307$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.334544.4%20 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1db2…ebc2backed Yes65c305$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.751346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+42.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a40…904bbacked No35c305$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.751457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4fb…7f7bbacked Yes67c302.42$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.93933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-36.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x751c…da55backed No34c293.3$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No28c288.48$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.866127.9%17 W · 44 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1184…1b67backed No38c286$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.68922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-63.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf901…2264backed No36c277.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+97.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1be…9662backed No5c261.38$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc171…19eebacked No72c260.14$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67f2…6a72backed Yes60c232$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.8944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick31cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No52c230$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.716237.7%61 W · 101 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes76c227.55$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.557619.7%15 W · 61 L+0.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb51…f32cbacked No27c222.82$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.234425%11 W · 33 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-29.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes74c217$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.9826641.7%111 W · 155 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f9c…0a0bbacked Yes80c212.5$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick69cpaid+31.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd69…f82ebacked No38c202$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf888…1c04backed Yes72c200$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+101.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1849…8916backed No20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ee…9238backed No40c198$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.2837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid+10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No38c196.67$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.811,4158%113 W · 1,302 L-48.7wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x78d2…7a2bbacked No33c193.5$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.752245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+33%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes61c185$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.1512539.2%49 W · 76 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes55c180.98$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.3218743.9%82 W · 105 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes68c172$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.5888533.6%297 W · 588 L-76.6wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa316…345ebacked No38c170$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No18c165$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9623041.7%96 W · 134 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf49…6cfebacked Yes66c163$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.422356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacb0…1652backed No38c158$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ad4…83b8backed No26c154.53$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4070%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd103…dc55backed No29c150.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.14170%0 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3609…95adbacked No18c150$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa772…6cdbbacked No38c150$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xda4a…2184backed No22c150$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.550%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ec8…7fdfbacked No38c146$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e50…7a6bbacked Yes70c142.37$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.372245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No18c132.02$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7648414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x98aa…fcb3backed Yes48c130$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x19f2…bbfabacked No38c125.73$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4670…103dbacked No23c125$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2135…9e8fbacked No41c120.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfda0…6aebbacked No33c119.21$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x40dd…7a52backed No22c119$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfdb…e6a0backed No20c118.49$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c2a…f17cbacked No26c116.46$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3070%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4da9…b9c9backed No35c115.87$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick42cpaid-78.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5888…e0f8backed No23c115$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e9c…6216backed No18c113$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.345444.4%24 W · 30 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa724…cb96backed No18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c28…9844backed No24c110.16$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.931421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-50.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x38a3…e3adbacked No33c106.06$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351020%2 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes77c106.04$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.39633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-54.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8841…c56cbacked No19c104.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0192…ba59backed Yes77c103.6$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.62744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes66c101.01$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.89244.6%41 W · 51 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77ff…3b59backed No34c100.22$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.721127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+40.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0370…48d3backed No19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1940%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.