TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Olympics · resolved market

Will the United States win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$150,304
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$155,584

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $150,304 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Olympics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x774f…bc40backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked No32c10,376$3,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,274.25516.4%9 W · 46 L-5.8wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-70.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes67c10,302$6,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,407.131258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed No8c9,969$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.91293.4%1 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-92.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed Yes76c4,758$3,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,161.722326.1%6 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x006d…06f8backed Yes67c2,636$1,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$860.81330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-41.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcac9…200bbacked Yes79c2,306$1,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.411450%7 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0097…f101backed No27c2,049$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.41910.5%2 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-72.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No20c2,003$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.191330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-52.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked No5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-82.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bcf…04fcbacked Yes69c1,900$1,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.843100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+60.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2907…9c3fbacked No29c1,887$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.61010%1 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick27cpaid-79.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ec7…4f54backed No14c1,620$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes65c1,288$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.66366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+21.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe8…e080backed Yes72c1,158$831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.132100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+39.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No2c1,130$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.03442.3%1 W · 43 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-75.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No27c1,106$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.752445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x687d…e28bbacked Yes68c1,068$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.17425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-63.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5f8…8520backed No32c1,015$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.5650%0 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No10c987.47$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.5360%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No22c943.32$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.341330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-53%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fcb…08fbbacked Yes69c919.83$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.461060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x548b…8390backed Yes72c892.22$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.88366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed No4c876.26$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.22933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+0.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No6c799.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6630%0 W · 63 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf680…2c59backed Yes68c767.02$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.792100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc67b…dc73backed Yes67c731.07$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.43650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc35e…d368backed Yes66c729.6$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.91145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-31.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x78ae…143abacked Yes67c724.08$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.12927.6%8 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6368…d45ebacked No35c721.71$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.021154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No34c702.43$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.77133.8%24 W · 47 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9381…0390backed No25c564.45$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.7470%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9f1…137cbacked No38c551.04$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2121421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-60.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x682d…31abbacked Yes77c535.76$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.593100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No21c523.76$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.182770.4%19 W · 8 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+32.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes67c505.8$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.814515.6%7 W · 38 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ee…cb04backed No30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15050%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No23c493.98$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.655318.9%10 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd02d…108ebacked No29c483.53$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e0f…c18cbacked Yes68c444.05$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.04650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4dd8…5335backed Yes75c428.18$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.75862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick55cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x737d…3685backed No27c399.41$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b1a…4221backed No4c354.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7350%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe3c3…ac62backed Yes70c342$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7454…b275backed No32c339.01$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0597…9232backed No32c315.1$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79a8…d63fbacked Yes69c300$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$932100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1604…ff0ebacked Yes74c299.98$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78e1…10e6backed Yes68c293.91$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.91450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-22%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes37c280.76$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.88366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+36.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0451…73fdbacked No37c270.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83f6…62f8backed Yes75c270$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd623…a446backed No31c265.43$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69e0…75b7backed No38c263.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6e…b45bbacked No62c263.16$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.161225%3 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaddf…ce76backed Yes38c263.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.161020%2 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-48.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a1f…943ebacked No26c220$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.260%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7257…fc40backed No26c214.04$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.052917.2%5 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ab3…07bcbacked No8c213.74$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3440%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Yes74c181.15$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.46137.7%23 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa05c…aa9bbacked Yes67c180.29$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.29450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcb9…c994backed Yes71c169.71$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.71366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfad…7443backed Yes60c167$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.8580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+30.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No31c166.01$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.745151%26 W · 25 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed No39c164$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.963132.3%10 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-39.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b6c…b8eabacked No32c163.85$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbab…9a8abacked Yes71c158.72$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.23862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3773…b9dabacked No31c150$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9288…b33dbacked Yes56c147.21$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.57560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b26…cfc5backed Yes69c145.95$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No28c143.95$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.853616.7%6 W · 30 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e33…11c9backed Yes70c142.04$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90f8…8033backed Yes74c135.8$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1554…3e52backed No27c130$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4af…a344backed Yes73c129.36$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.93333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-54.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfc6…52c6backed Yes69c120.93$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.78475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ad8…4998backed No25c116.6$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.96450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cd5…f2cfbacked Yes69c110.84$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.51333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-51.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8417…7becbacked No27c110.35$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc7c…23c8backed No35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick27cpaid-84.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf21…18debacked Yes69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+118.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0238…eb0bbacked Yes66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-49.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0bb…5ceabacked No27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcb6…ccecbacked No27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5b6…4d84backed No27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7dc…b609backed No27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x170c…7fe3backed No26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d62…27e0backed Yes70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+80.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a80…75b8backed No30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0f4…9570backed No31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3130%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbda…f10fbacked Yes71c99.14$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.14771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3bb…dbdebacked No29c96$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.02425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-62.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fb9…c354backed No23c88.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbee7…dc3abacked No23c86.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.33911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick20cpaid-74.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes74c81.62$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.368535.3%30 W · 55 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-35.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9f66…3a50backed Yes68c73.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.64333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick65cpaid-50.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1f1…847ebacked No27c73.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a3d…efefbacked Yes69c72.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb967…3bfdbacked Yes69c72.61$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.