Olympics · resolved market
Will Norway win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9892f2375efa6e0ade5e0c8cfe63e1da1c2eca562c4599ae357071f0a2a33c2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,697
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,697 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 7c | 11,658$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.33 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 1c | 7,830$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.07 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 21c | 7,176$1,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,474.17 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…fa67backed Yes | 1c | 6,770$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed No | 67c | 3,035$2,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.35 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,319$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,250$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 1,072$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e7…045abacked Yes | 15c | 1,053$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 655.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 3c | 577.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -25%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 4c | 300.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 55 | 9.1%5 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed No | 79c | 290$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.02 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0262…a9d2backed Yes | 13c | 190$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 182.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 80c | 130$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd90…ab3ebacked Yes | 11c | 111.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 21c | 93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 72c | 69.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 68.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x087d…5d77backed No | 80c | 45.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad8…4998backed No | 78c | 41.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61e5…04d8backed No | 76c | 32.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Norway win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Austria win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Canada win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will China win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will France win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Germany win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Italy win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Japan win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Netherlands win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Switzerland win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will the United States win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.