Olympics · resolved market
Will Germany win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x306a59c454dd2829c94ce7e50f27f171ebf66437fe97e7e1afdf0b9dc1f7971d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 4c | 11,015$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.81 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9381…0390backed Yes | 4c | 4,087$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.01 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.61 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 2,595$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 44 | 2.3%1 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…f101backed Yes | 9c | 2,152$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.27 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa39e…1d88backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,621$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.49 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,338$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.95 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,207$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 2c | 990.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 4c | 921.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd80…1266backed Yes | 11c | 900.41$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 851.07$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.63 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x006d…06f8backed Yes | 4c | 676.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7c…23c8backed Yes | 4c | 545.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 5c | 526.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked No | 78c | 519.05$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.74 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 3c | 503.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Yes | 10c | 500$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3d…bf10backed Yes | 31c | 499.98$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9288…b33dbacked Yes | 5c | 422.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 5c | 336.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 42 | 0%0 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b8…04ecbacked Yes | 8c | 329.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -63%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 312.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0262…a9d2backed Yes | 6c | 306.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked Yes | 6c | 283.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 35cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 39c | 255$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f66…ae50backed Yes | 4c | 250.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 7c | 246.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 5c | 212.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 55 | 9.1%5 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…143abacked No | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f4…d2d7backed Yes | 30c | 200$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -68%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c86…e223backed Yes | 16c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…116fbacked Yes | 25c | 189.4$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 70c | 164.89$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.61 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 16c | 104.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 76c | 97.69$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 77c | 85.1$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 12 | 100%12 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…2b81backed No | 76c | 84.45$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 65cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed Yes | 25c | 74.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…42dbbacked No | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed No | 69c | 28.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 57cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Germany win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Austria win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Canada win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will China win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will France win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Italy win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Japan win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Netherlands win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Norway win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Switzerland win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will the United States win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.