Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Brandon Herrera be the Republican nominee for TX-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x038626f61ad2feeabe1fbbae7bd00722cb8d80800d07919ad995fe5278a2ea00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,693 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f1a…bfa2backed No | 11c | 874.97$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 39c | 786.34$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.8 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd64e…5516backed No | 41c | 765.29$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.77 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…2cdbbacked No | 9c | 752$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked Yes | 56c | 655$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 10c | 645.97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.81 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…9cefbacked No | 37c | 608$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadbd…93f9backed No | 44c | 529$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x252c…391abacked No | 9c | 495$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9f9ebacked Yes | 63c | 475$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…02c0backed No | 10c | 385$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +120.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 66c | 334$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.71 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 10c | 301.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…68cabacked No | 36c | 289$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed Yes | 64c | 289$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4d…3e2cbacked No | 10c | 239.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 15c | 225.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a30…8bbfbacked Yes | 61c | 209.9$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb2…7f19backed No | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 6c | 180$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…f2d0backed No | 13c | 178.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 29c | 178.11$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.65 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 71c | 171.71$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 12c | 150.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 52c | 139.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.39 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb73e…975ebacked Yes | 63c | 133$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabeb…7a78backed No | 44c | 126$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa32d…a5f0backed Yes | 80c | 125.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 36c | 124.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 75c | 104.36$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 42c | 81.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 20c | 81.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 77c | 62.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 42c | 56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9831…1220backed Yes | 72c | 49.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…01cbbacked Yes | 43c | 48.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5725…36e3backed Yes | 78c | 45.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…59afbacked No | 39c | 42.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb25f…a460backed No | 40c | 37.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 40c | 33.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x269f…5034backed Yes | 80c | 30.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…643fbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +192.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…cf43backed No | 61c | 29.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fac…3e5abacked Yes | 59c | 28.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b1e…7bcebacked No | 44c | 25.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 47c | 24.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c9…1623backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb32f…4f72backed No | 57c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brandon Herrera be the Republican nominee for TX-23?this page
- Will Tony Gonzales be the Republican nominee for TX-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.