Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Tony Gonzales be the Republican nominee for TX-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed5b71888929c71366f3b832fde7010442a5f188f1752cfa33ce55b01b092ef1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,037 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3e1…1d2ebacked Yes | 40c | 1,130$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed Yes | 40c | 669$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7762…8a01backed Yes | 10c | 631$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…b300backed No | 60c | 573$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…bfa2backed Yes | 13c | 546.75$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.73 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 79c | 488$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.12 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…34e0backed Yes | 38c | 444$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed No | 62c | 444$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07ff…482bbacked Yes | 5c | 395.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…92cabacked No | 60c | 364$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2b…a065backed No | 60c | 358$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 16c | 340.13$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 20c | 336.01$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.52 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb0…0d4cbacked No | 60c | 311$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 45cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 7c | 279.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 196$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5374…952abacked No | 60c | 193$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…7922backed Yes | 17c | 172.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 35c | 124.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 35c | 123$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed No | 60c | 117$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.79 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde4f…2cffbacked Yes | 12c | 105$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…c83bbacked No | 44c | 94$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d1bebacked Yes | 56c | 94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Yes | 37c | 77.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 37c | 67.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7260…5e6ebacked Yes | 34c | 55.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…01cbbacked Yes | 54c | 48.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…cf43backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 52c | 27.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed No | 61c | 20.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0748…103bbacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 63c | 19.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tony Gonzales be the Republican nominee for TX-23?this page
- Will Brandon Herrera be the Republican nominee for TX-23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.