TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will NVIDIA reach $200 in February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$78,997
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$81,493

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,997 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 162 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes36c4,436$1,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,611.871,77549%869 W · 906 L+141.4wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+17.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xab51…2473backed Yes4c3,300$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.0150%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc21e…0215backed Yes30c3,111$919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.017034.3%24 W · 46 L-0.3wins0.00per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No76c2,911$2,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.6413941.7%58 W · 81 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf21…be19backed No33c1,985$663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,322.3248234%164 W · 318 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe653…4594backed Yes59c1,500$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88550%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed Yes44c1,455$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.3799038%376 W · 614 L+2.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72a2…7b65backed Yes76c1,300$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.49250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid+5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes4c1,203$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.084168.7%36 W · 380 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No57c1,121$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.0326237%97 W · 165 L-11.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-34.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6bd…b05abacked Yes39c1,053$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed Yes35c1,035$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.2560229.9%180 W · 422 L-32.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No26c1,000$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.2819934.2%68 W · 131 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc12a…dc73backed No59c955.6$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.784148.8%20 W · 21 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-21.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked No69c900$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2792688.5%23 W · 3 L+5.4wins+0.21per pick68cpaid+35.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked No76c899.97$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.994057.5%23 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf350…f3ffbacked No27c746.42$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.3435151.6%181 W · 170 L+19.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes23c726.44$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.033619.4%7 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-32.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x128d…fc4abacked Yes63c663.21$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-50.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2478…2e62backed Yes63c624.5$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.891637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3e…2755backed No65c610$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d06…397ebacked No68c603.6$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59e8…c5e8backed Yes66c600$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…cae1backed No59c583.81$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.76887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick65cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c566.66$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.75924.3%4 W · 88 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes58c518.09$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.356150.8%31 W · 30 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96e9…4b32backed No63c500$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1854146.3%19 W · 22 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-15%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb5a2…c2c2backed No49c472.15$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.4875%6 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+36.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x622f…9992backed No47c467$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.0410442.3%44 W · 60 L-7.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes24c414$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.52231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-52.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfc23…dbe6backed Yes64c405.68$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes24c379.22$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.245335.8%19 W · 34 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4fc2…02a9backed Yes43c377.86$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x40c8…160ebacked No59c375.63$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.63250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-14.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes5c340.9$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.72837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick19cpaid+51.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No61c316.25$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.4881240.3%327 W · 485 L+37.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x120e…edc8backed Yes65c314.56$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.98728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff52…c796backed No38c311.09$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.622941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed Yes38c305.31$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.336141%25 W · 36 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-21.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e46…24debacked Yes59c303.93$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.93837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa37d…ca94backed No32c300$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2041060%6 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+146.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x45b0…ceebbacked No30c300$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2101758.8%10 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.18per pick41cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf629…bda0backed No37c291.23$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.742250%11 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No47c272.75$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.7786338.1%329 W · 534 L-43.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x131c…6816backed No60c265.42$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.991963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x604e…2cb1backed No45c259.79$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.971931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes39c252.96$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.4215947.8%76 W · 83 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4d3…c5afbacked No66c250$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c83…cf0abacked Yes57c247.43$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.03475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c55…8e08backed No70c239.78$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.74366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes45c231.59$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.5927429.2%80 W · 194 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No62c227.8$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.2256548.7%275 W · 290 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ccc…2900backed No29c226$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.44580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+52.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes34c215.87$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.522030%6 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x634a…6de3backed No33c213.37$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.37250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+52.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No73c205.61$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.5415131.1%47 W · 104 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-44%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba9c…d98dbacked No67c200$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7a4…ffebbacked Yes40c200$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x040b…bbc5backed No74c192$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.92250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x170c…7fe3backed Yes73c188.76$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.79771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x803c…3c94backed No59c177.97$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9367…eebdbacked No48c176$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x340d…484bbacked No48c175$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed No16c173.56$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.63837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick25cpaid+88.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7166…233abacked No48c171$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0355…d303backed No48c169$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3e…e6c2backed No48c166$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65e4…3051backed No48c166$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf98…1dc4backed No48c166$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ce5…bf03backed No48c163$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf88b…2770backed Yes52c163$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x383e…a331backed No48c162$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4916…dd4ebacked No48c161$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x184b…e7d0backed Yes52c159$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f1d…b41dbacked Yes52c157$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64be…5c2dbacked No48c156$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03c9…52e5backed Yes52c156$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd9…0b05backed No48c156$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7594…62debacked Yes52c155$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd631…0c4dbacked Yes52c155$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed Yes66c154.27$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.2413147.3%62 W · 69 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ab9…b107backed Yes52c152$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed No43c151.02$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.072236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-39.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x87a7…14abbacked Yes52c151$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b4…7c77backed Yes70c150$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e8f…8e4bbacked Yes52c150$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x540a…64c9backed No73c149.47$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.53148.4%15 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d1c…9921backed Yes52c146$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa571…b680backed Yes52c146$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf19f…f313backed Yes69c145.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x025e…3aebbacked Yes52c145$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2818…04a2backed Yes69c144.81$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cbc…6597backed Yes52c144$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe182…b624backed No34c132.02$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.13742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf30f…a161backed Yes36c120$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+16.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe652…d114backed No57c116.06$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.392100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51dd…c727backed No38c115.97$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.91080%8 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+167.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc69b…7a89backed No48c106$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes26c105$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.343838.8%170 W · 268 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x552c…e786backed Yes44c102.23$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.