Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA dip to $176 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3198dd943e669247f030ef00cb8961d085a9b99f1155960b8cc3e1f08d1c0139
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,687
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 52c | 214$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.38 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…cae1backed No | 50c | 170$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.7 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 65cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e6…e940backed Yes | 43c | 139$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…e56fbacked Yes | 43c | 137$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd38e…2a7ebacked Yes | 43c | 134$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda1…bd3fbacked Yes | 43c | 130$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x957e…8ea0backed Yes | 43c | 122$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47fa…f242backed Yes | 43c | 122$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1a…1929backed Yes | 43c | 120$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x474b…57dcbacked Yes | 43c | 117$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13b2…42debacked No | 57c | 111$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1699…b4c0backed No | 57c | 107$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 54c | 105.25$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.41 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7646…5ab1backed No | 57c | 105$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c42…dadbbacked No | 57c | 103$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01f7…1832backed No | 57c | 101$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…44eebacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96d8…cbd0backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2968…e50ebacked No | 57c | 99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f14…3845backed No | 57c | 98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…a379backed No | 57c | 97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 58c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 69.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 45c | 39.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ad…9e91backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 47c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 46c | 24.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a39…7d63backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA dip to $176 in February?this page
- Will NVIDIA dip to $108 in February?No won
- Will NVIDIA dip to $144 in February?No won
- Will NVIDIA dip to $156 in February?No won
- Will NVIDIA dip to $168 in February?No won
- Will NVIDIA dip to $184 in February?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA reach $192 in February?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA reach $200 in February?No won
- Will NVIDIA reach $208 in February?No won
- Will NVIDIA reach $220 in February?No won
- Will NVIDIA reach $236 in February?No won
- Will NVIDIA reach $252 in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.