TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will NVIDIA dip to $168 in February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$37,980
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,611

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,980 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes21c4,275$887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886.761,77949.1%873 W · 906 L+143.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+17.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed Yes24c2,230$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.4399038%376 W · 614 L+2.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes1c1,289$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.374168.7%36 W · 380 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa802…23dfbacked Yes11c1,205$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1319913.1%13 W · 86 L-11.3wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-46.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes9c1,088$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.133619.4%7 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-32.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed Yes40c1,071$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.8360229.9%180 W · 422 L-32.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes34c1,062$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.5981240.3%327 W · 485 L+37.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3016…9af6backed Yes5c1,008$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7340%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c9a…553bbacked No71c705.77$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.336361.9%39 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…cae1backed No64c665.65$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.93887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick65cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xef8e…d9edbacked No65c505.65$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2478…2e62backed Yes45c478.12$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.261637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96a4…ed03backed Yes28c400$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes29c379.32$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9186338.1%329 W · 534 L-43.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e0c…7fa3backed Yes67c335.1$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.1118853.2%100 W · 88 L+18.1wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+55.8%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked No69c300$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$934057.5%23 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6dc2…2f88backed Yes9c299.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf629…bda0backed Yes29c286.63$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.122250%11 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ceb…baefbacked No51c256.86$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.862445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd37…a29fbacked Yes40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed No69c239.56$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.262871.4%20 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb637…4c42backed Yes67c229.39$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.761136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes16c229.2$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.642231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-52.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No63c222$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.1456548.7%275 W · 290 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf811…69babacked No60c219.75$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.91625%4 W · 12 L-3.6wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-57.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcc8c…43e9backed Yes42c200$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd178…eef6backed Yes42c196$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x031d…9e84backed Yes42c195$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4a7…3764backed Yes42c195$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3746…ebb0backed Yes42c192$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc47…5786backed Yes42c191$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ccc…2900backed No73c189.93$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.36580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+52.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x670e…d390backed Yes42c188$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15dd…c289backed Yes42c180$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42f5…e231backed Yes42c178$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes23c158.65$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2322129%64 W · 157 L-14.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5653…9a7fbacked No58c145$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed No60c144$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.486150.8%31 W · 30 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79ae…4878backed No58c142$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14a1…f5bcbacked No58c142$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…5d01backed No58c141$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0db2…b714backed No58c141$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b8b…730cbacked No58c137$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9da4…439cbacked No58c136$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f05…bb5fbacked No58c136$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e45…a331backed No58c135$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bda…ecd6backed No58c134$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f84…4f4bbacked No58c132$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeabb…4e9abacked No58c130$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes38c124.1$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.727522.7%17 W · 58 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-53.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x622f…9992backed No43c119.15$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.8210442.3%44 W · 60 L-7.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes45c104$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4743838.8%170 W · 268 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc21e…0215backed Yes39c100.1$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.047034.3%24 W · 46 L-0.3wins0.00per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Yes49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4980%0 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.55335.8%19 W · 34 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x131c…6816backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc934…5551backed Yes51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5160%0 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x170c…7fe3backed No52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fe6…8712backed No58c98$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x540a…64c9backed No68c96.75$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.563148.4%15 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x71dd…6275backed Yes42c89$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked No54c80$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.812360.2%74 W · 49 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+9.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked No64c71.94$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.21933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-48.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4d3…c5afbacked No61c62$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.35944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No35c57.29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.441,4448.8%127 W · 1,317 L-53.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No60c55.92$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.187068.6%48 W · 22 L+8.5wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+19.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf6bb…3d27backed No58c55$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03c0…d899backed No60c41.67$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.674100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+43%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa218…b0afbacked No70c41.16$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.182100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+67.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes37c39.04$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4416418.9%31 W · 133 L-16.7wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-45%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x00a1…36c7backed No55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.361471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+19.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4bca…3ce9backed Yes48c34.94$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe92d…de3cbacked No63c31.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.751346.2%6 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaf1…63c8backed Yes37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc6d2…395bbacked Yes70c28.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a05…9b3fbacked No63c25.79$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.543100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ce8…ed83backed No78c25.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.64666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+56.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x08c1…6eb3backed Yes57c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.41030%3 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-51.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x417e…52d4backed No60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick59cpaid+8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51f2…38efbacked No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.19per pick62cpaid-39.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4575…9628backed Yes60c18.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110427.9%29 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e2e…d589backed Yes63c16$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9a6…c7e3backed No64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No67c15.15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527338.1%104 W · 169 L-19.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.