Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA reach $208 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f28e936a3e9c2a916bfdecc4d6603835e1985f60c485a60bcb7b8402a7ec5cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 13c | 7,476$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.01 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 2,064$1,635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.21 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 19c | 1,600$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 1,553$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked Yes | 18c | 1,401$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.84 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -11.3wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5a…bf0abacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 65c | 964.34$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.25 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef5…9e19backed Yes | 28c | 943.36$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 78c | 899.83$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.78 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cce…6e85backed Yes | 16c | 898.45$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.72 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 25c | 881$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.19 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 78c | 661.5$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.91 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 26c | 574.06$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.85 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 570.96$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.13 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ff…0852backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa9…a41dbacked Yes | 8c | 487.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe507…1258backed Yes | 32c | 447.8$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x128d…fc4abacked Yes | 45c | 420$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc12a…dc73backed Yes | 32c | 397.23$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.8 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed Yes | 11c | 340.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 25c | 331$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.89 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x131c…6816backed Yes | 24c | 318.84$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.58 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…cae1backed No | 78c | 305.29$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.03 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 65cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 300.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 92 | 4.3%4 W · 88 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…0215backed Yes | 30c | 289.14$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.72 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 274.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 7c | 263.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +146.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…a837backed Yes | 32c | 252.5$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 241.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.88 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf921…be16backed Yes | 24c | 204.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 14c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdb…ecbbbacked No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x007f…233abacked No | 66c | 187.29$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.56 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 14c | 182.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed No | 80c | 179.54$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 19c | 164.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d7…6e01backed Yes | 50c | 156$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…8803backed Yes | 50c | 155$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f03…f81bbacked Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 13c | 140.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff3…5971backed Yes | 32c | 139.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6d…0bd0backed Yes | 50c | 128$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…680ebacked No | 50c | 126$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15dd…e6cebacked No | 50c | 122$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf348…dfb8backed No | 50c | 115$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…c094backed No | 78c | 113.27$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x595e…3f23backed No | 50c | 113$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef7…748ebacked No | 50c | 113$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 16c | 109.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 16c | 109.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 79c | 107$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 16c | 103.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes | 10c | 102.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c8…c1c9backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a7…eb3abacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 99.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 22c | 97.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5be…116cbacked Yes | 24c | 76.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa8…52bebacked No | 69c | 73.43$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x604e…2cb1backed Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 17c | 69.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 158 | 35.4%56 W · 102 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74eb…c78abacked No | 78c | 50.63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc749…db69backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 32c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 31c | 35.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce97…7270backed Yes | 58c | 34.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…c727backed No | 71c | 30.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +167.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 75c | 28.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 76c | 27.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…bef0backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df5…e7c2backed No | 80c | 17.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked No | 79c | 13.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA reach $208 in February?this page
- Will NVIDIA dip to $108 in February?No won
- Will NVIDIA dip to $144 in February?No won
- Will NVIDIA dip to $156 in February?No won
- Will NVIDIA dip to $168 in February?No won
- Will NVIDIA dip to $176 in February?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA dip to $184 in February?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA reach $192 in February?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA reach $200 in February?No won
- Will NVIDIA reach $220 in February?No won
- Will NVIDIA reach $236 in February?No won
- Will NVIDIA reach $252 in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.