TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will NVIDIA reach $208 in February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$39,512
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,165

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,512 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes13c7,476$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.011,77949.1%873 W · 906 L+143.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+17.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No79c2,064$1,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.2126237%97 W · 165 L-11.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-34.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed Yes19c1,600$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30399038%376 W · 614 L+2.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes2c1,553$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.694168.7%36 W · 380 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa802…23dfbacked Yes18c1,401$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.849913.1%13 W · 86 L-11.3wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-46.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdf5a…bf0abacked Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-46.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf350…f3ffbacked No65c964.34$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.2535151.6%181 W · 170 L+19.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ef5…9e19backed Yes28c943.36$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.5530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No78c899.83$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.7813941.7%58 W · 81 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cce…6e85backed Yes16c898.45$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.721118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+32.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes25c881$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.193619.4%7 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-32.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No78c661.5$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.9181240.3%327 W · 485 L+37.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed Yes26c574.06$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.8560229.9%180 W · 422 L-32.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes16c570.96$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.131,4448.8%127 W · 1,317 L-53.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12ff…0852backed Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa9…a41dbacked Yes8c487.71$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe507…1258backed Yes32c447.8$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.360%0 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x128d…fc4abacked Yes45c420$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-50.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7365…64dabacked Yes18c400$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc12a…dc73backed Yes32c397.23$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.84148.8%20 W · 21 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-21.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8e0c…7fa3backed Yes11c340.4$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6218853.2%100 W · 88 L+18.1wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+55.8%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x2478…2e62backed Yes25c331$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.891637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x131c…6816backed Yes24c318.84$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.581963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4449…cae1backed No78c305.29$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.03887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick65cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c300.93$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.22924.3%4 W · 88 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab51…2473backed Yes17c300$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5150%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc21e…0215backed Yes30c289.14$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.727034.3%24 W · 46 L-0.3wins0.00per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes13c274.84$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9516418.9%31 W · 133 L-16.7wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-45%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes7c263.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.14650%3 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+146.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x41d0…a837backed Yes32c252.5$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes25c241.88$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8886338.1%329 W · 534 L-43.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf921…be16backed Yes24c204.7$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes14c200$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27704.3%3 W · 67 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-75%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4cdb…ecbbbacked No77c200$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x007f…233abacked No66c187.29$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.564465.9%29 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes14c182.63$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5722129%64 W · 157 L-14.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x170c…7fe3backed No80c179.54$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.91771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed Yes19c164.64$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.468140.7%33 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54d7…6e01backed Yes50c156$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb13…8803backed Yes50c155$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f03…f81bbacked Yes50c150$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes13c140.63$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.841117.2%8 W · 103 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-58.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbff3…5971backed Yes32c139.69$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc6d…0bd0backed Yes50c128$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b98…680ebacked No50c126$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15dd…e6cebacked No50c122$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes20c120$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.85911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-83.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf348…dfb8backed No50c115$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3925…c094backed No78c113.27$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.381241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x595e…3f23backed No50c113$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ef7…748ebacked No50c113$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4575…9628backed Yes16c109.39$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710427.9%29 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes16c109.03$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1915131.1%47 W · 104 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-44%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No79c107$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.476141%25 W · 36 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-21.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed Yes16c103.01$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7513147.3%62 W · 69 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes10c102.35$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.242231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-52.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb3c8…c1c9backed No77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31a7…eb3abacked Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes10c99.81$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3419934.2%68 W · 131 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes22c97.87$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2627429.2%80 W · 194 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa5be…116cbacked Yes24c76.23$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.230%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4fa8…52bebacked No69c73.43$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x604e…2cb1backed Yes22c70$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.41931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes17c69.82$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5415947.8%76 W · 83 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes23c56$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6715835.4%56 W · 102 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x74eb…c78abacked No78c50.63$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.141369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+16.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc749…db69backed Yes31c48.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes32c42$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4216248.1%78 W · 84 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes31c35.92$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.11540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-36.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce97…7270backed Yes58c34.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51dd…c727backed No71c30.6$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.991080%8 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+167.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x476c…ce52backed No75c28.41$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9623245.3%105 W · 127 L+15.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No76c27.2$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.67068.6%48 W · 22 L+8.5wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+19.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbb9f…bef0backed No69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0df5…e7c2backed No80c17.46$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.49944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-36.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe8c…ad4bbacked No79c13.97$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.9862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.