Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA dip to $156 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0446968b6f0abedca51a9f21e2f096afa2677470e51ffa6a0fb8b8cd2bf844b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 21c | 1,622$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.36 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…cae1backed No | 78c | 959.57$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.48 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 65cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed No | 70c | 916.35$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.54 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 9c | 835.46$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc632…55bebacked Yes | 79c | 586.14$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.64 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa9…a41dbacked Yes | 3c | 521.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 9c | 502.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Yes | 21c | 400.35$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.07 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…5551backed Yes | 30c | 399.98$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bad…08a1backed Yes | 25c | 308$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 70c | 246$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccc…2900backed No | 77c | 180.98$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 21c | 120.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 109.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 108.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 66c | 104$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 22c | 101.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 64c | 100.31$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4085…583fbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc913…fa41backed Yes | 29c | 89.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…36c7backed No | 69c | 86.48$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03c0…d899backed No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa62…4dccbacked Yes | 27c | 48.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83f4…2b42backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 33c | 38.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked No | 60c | 34.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 79c | 28.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 75 | 22.7%17 W · 58 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA dip to $156 in February?this page
- Will NVIDIA dip to $108 in February?No won
- Will NVIDIA dip to $144 in February?No won
- Will NVIDIA dip to $168 in February?No won
- Will NVIDIA dip to $176 in February?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA dip to $184 in February?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA reach $192 in February?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA reach $200 in February?No won
- Will NVIDIA reach $208 in February?No won
- Will NVIDIA reach $220 in February?No won
- Will NVIDIA reach $236 in February?No won
- Will NVIDIA reach $252 in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.