TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the March Meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$69,000

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,000 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes77c2,020$1,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.572462.5%15 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcce6…1720backed No10c2,001$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bbc…e3cfbacked No5c1,850$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb11a…7ad3backed Yes78c1,276$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No26c1,188$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.111844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8866…912abacked No10c1,170$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.17450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a40…4093backed Yes66c933.04$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.54742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No22c723.57$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.91110%0 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes75c712.95$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.1250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-33.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes73c696.61$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.794231%13 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf57c…6ff7backed No7c553$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa660…2b9dbacked Yes75c525.13$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.28580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0c3…5b9abacked Yes66c500$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No3c455.34$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.038510.6%9 W · 76 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe95e…61f2backed Yes80c374.07$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.112015%3 W · 17 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick33cpaid-76.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked No12c367.15$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.63411.8%4 W · 30 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-62.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ce6…16a3backed No12c356.18$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.34633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+97.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed No13c352.19$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.510241.2%42 W · 60 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91aa…4679backed Yes79c342.54$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.092100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7861…3120backed No7c334.08$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf51…5c87backed Yes74c330.2$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.8333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-55.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No19c315.56$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.3130837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xae70…abfbbacked Yes61c307.57$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.37742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05bb…9acabacked Yes73c304.05$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.44475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick35cpaid+101%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No21c300.17$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5411225.9%29 W · 83 L-0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd416…d9e2backed No6c300$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x394f…6288backed No34c296.66$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.38250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf65d…02a5backed No31c269.68$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.05250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No8c268.25$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.211074.7%5 W · 102 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7832…ca08backed No15c268.03$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No32c266.97$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.611840.7%48 W · 70 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe356…63bcbacked No16c259.65$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb921…bea5backed No32c253.28$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No20c250.77$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.96341.3%26 W · 37 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes71c231.1$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.513762.2%23 W · 14 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x48ed…3a1ebacked Yes75c223.89$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.772100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+82.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06ab…ee5cbacked Yes58c211.19$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.8475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+39%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4cd7…5629backed No10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No17c200$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.883060%18 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes69c199.99$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624214.3%6 W · 36 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-65.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes62c187.19$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.45520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.39per pick59cpaid-67.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc79f…e3febacked No14c178.4$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4640%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd972…545fbacked No6c173.17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No8c166.74$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.091302.3%3 W · 127 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-68.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16c0…38acbacked No12c163.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-68.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d1c…1134backed Yes79c162.14$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.05366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d15…106dbacked Yes38c157$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…bd7abacked Yes38c150$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$931100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5485…ae4abacked Yes76c148.72$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.79366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfaf…365ebacked Yes69c145.55$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd563…ea92backed Yes38c145$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc0…ab69backed Yes71c141.75$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68a0…0fe0backed Yes38c140$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeae3…2809backed Yes38c138$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x563a…f578backed No14c135.15$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.61714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-82%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…abc2backed Yes75c134.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e3d…d674backed No20c130.05$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6332…b6f1backed Yes78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.21475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+59.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2c9…755cbacked Yes78c127.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.73333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-57.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No21c126.97$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.858733.3%29 W · 58 L-6.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbee0…aa9fbacked No10c126.2$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.19825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-64%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbc2…e505backed Yes38c126$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28c0…78e4backed Yes68c122.78$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.18366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No23c122.02$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6439429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No15c120.91$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.843737.8%14 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3288…73fabacked Yes51c120$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No32c118.9$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4729416%47 W · 247 L-53.7wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-65.8%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x4888…bb8fbacked No25c118.76$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccae…8455backed No22c113.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf936…59afbacked No16c111.93$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc04d…cbd6backed No18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e77…21a9backed Yes57c102.99$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.39650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08db…a228backed Yes80c100.36$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520026%52 W · 148 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-67.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf050…a037backed No30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-63.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x50fa…11babacked Yes77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb902…31e2backed No35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f75…bd00backed No15c99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc461…f4dabacked No62c91$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4f3…1a7abacked No62c91$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x82a5…f845backed No62c90$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa678…976fbacked No62c90$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x07a5…caffbacked No62c88$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0ee…5e72backed No62c87$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf731…27bbbacked No62c86$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f1f…feaebacked No30c85.66$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.511612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-77.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x78bd…4c9bbacked No62c84$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb852…9709backed No62c81$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No28c80.33$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.721250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No18c75.85$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.775743.9%25 W · 32 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2813…2323backed Yes69c72.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0d5…27f2backed No62c68$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb25f…a460backed No22c67.17$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.99333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes80c66.19$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.241258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+20.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ca6…6fa8backed No52c65.17$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.171442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+29.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e4b…4116backed Yes73c65$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9e2…42eabacked Yes78c64.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0950…62f4backed Yes79c63.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.29650%3 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-31.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x624b…6190backed No33c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.