TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the March Meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$52,950

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,950 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5d99…2c67backed Yes9c2,210$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No74c1,142$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.821844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf050…9134backed Yes9c1,138$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes4c1,127$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.391747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0438…a06bbacked Yes14c1,110$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb946…b59cbacked Yes18c1,030$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+49%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes24c984$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.141127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa55f…415ebacked Yes8c982.42$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No77c932.36$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.1830837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf43f…ae53backed Yes11c912.94$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bc7…520dbacked Yes27c904.19$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes12c871.8$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.0826238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes15c810$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.78742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bd8…a74abacked Yes4c799.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32837.5%3 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.28per pick9cpaid+128.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes7c781.67$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes23c756.45$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.68250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-33.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7100…e693backed Yes14c749.99$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes16c677$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa076…e248backed Yes9c671.53$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc67f…dac8backed Yes14c630.56$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.43520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-72.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed Yes12c605$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.43714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick30cpaid-57%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8d1…356dbacked Yes2c587.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1db…1afabacked Yes22c559.7$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb12e…8c6cbacked No73c522.19$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.991729.4%5 W · 12 L-4.8wins-0.28per pick58cpaid-51.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x1423…a51bbacked Yes8c517.88$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+22%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0c3…5b9abacked Yes30c499.99$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ee4…869fbacked Yes4c499.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes23c499.98$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1151127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8a…de2fbacked Yes20c498.02$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf772…dbf9backed Yes6c480.57$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes25c448.7$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.24231%13 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb75…446dbacked Yes10c415.08$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401625%4 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x83e8…7b89backed Yes15c398.81$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.64250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed Yes21c388.89$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.916030%18 W · 42 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7ff…4bb7backed Yes9c371.7$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf65d…02a5backed No72c348.18$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.01250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf51…5c87backed Yes25c330.2$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.32333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-55.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4f9…e61cbacked Yes10c320.24$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.61250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+34.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98dd…1114backed Yes31c318.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fbe…8215backed Yes32c315.7$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed No74c300$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782250%11 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfd7…6ee0backed Yes34c295.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26b0…da45backed Yes9c278.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6d2…80dcbacked Yes33c273.48$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.95250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b9a…471fbacked Yes8c253.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafbc…18c6backed Yes17c251.82$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes24c251.49$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.47110%0 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes11c251.26$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.34829.2%14 W · 34 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+21.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x006a…c0c4backed Yes10c244.57$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd27…2807backed Yes31c242.98$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.36862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.30per pick32cpaid+74.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No72c231.21$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.675743.9%25 W · 32 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No65c220$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772560%15 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-4.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac43…d08abacked Yes27c215.25$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7d9…c572backed Yes7c214.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70fc…750fbacked Yes17c200$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x46a1…2736backed Yes20c190$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.62560%15 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+50.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb67a…07aebacked Yes16c172.74$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3829…dea6backed Yes7c171.2$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9a1…5421backed Yes24c165.42$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb79e…da6ebacked Yes11c160.91$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes12c156$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-39.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes7c149.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.535341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No71c146.4$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.751250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes10c145.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.16825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-64%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b3e…4eedbacked Yes22c136.96$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f27…d37ebacked No66c127.22$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.255100%5 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+78.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x92aa…0341backed Yes15c124.4$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.34944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa96b…d88fbacked No49c122$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ef0…6201backed No49c121$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f6c…f41dbacked No49c121$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x450e…80aebacked Yes13c120.44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.292835.7%10 W · 18 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+38.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x34ec…d0ecbacked No49c120$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6bb…7cf7backed Yes9c117$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c84…b783backed Yes17c116.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58f6…1730backed No49c116$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4976…2861backed Yes51c115$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70d1…d18ebacked Yes51c115$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82fe…07e1backed Yes51c114$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2321…f18fbacked No49c114$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ae…7547backed Yes51c113$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x249d…0ad3backed Yes35c112.78$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab0c…efeebacked Yes51c112$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb752…c9f5backed No49c112$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64a2…0cd0backed Yes51c110$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc92…fa3cbacked No49c110$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc404…8f4fbacked Yes16c108.18$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5441…645fbacked No49c108$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a85…c4d0backed Yes51c106$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23c4…e969backed Yes51c106$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb35c…78c5backed No49c102$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…e845backed Yes29c101.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6f2…1519backed Yes51c101$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25de…7acfbacked Yes51c101$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7ee…d185backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b5a…c111backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb902…31e2backed Yes47c99.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39e8…55e7backed Yes51c99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes22c97.47$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.929416%47 W · 247 L-53.7wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-65.8%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x5ece…9bf9backed Yes31c96.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x981b…f642backed Yes26c92.31$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-28.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.