Ukraine · resolved market
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the March Meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43aab937f430a3492f51dcd4bd9b3adf6d9875e1e070670b52507230bc618dd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,950 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d99…2c67backed Yes | 9c | 2,210$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 74c | 1,142$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.82 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf050…9134backed Yes | 9c | 1,138$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 4c | 1,127$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…a06bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,110$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…b59cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,030$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +49%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 24c | 984$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.14 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa55f…415ebacked Yes | 8c | 982.42$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 932.36$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.18 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf43f…ae53backed Yes | 11c | 912.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc7…520dbacked Yes | 27c | 904.19$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 12c | 871.8$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.08 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 15c | 810$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd8…a74abacked Yes | 4c | 799.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 9cpaid | +128.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 7c | 781.67$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 23c | 756.45$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7100…e693backed Yes | 14c | 749.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 16c | 677$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa076…e248backed Yes | 9c | 671.53$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 14c | 630.56$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed Yes | 12c | 605$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.43 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d1…356dbacked Yes | 2c | 587.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1db…1afabacked Yes | 22c | 559.7$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 73c | 522.19$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.99 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.28per pick | 58cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1423…a51bbacked Yes | 8c | 517.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c3…5b9abacked Yes | 30c | 499.99$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…869fbacked Yes | 4c | 499.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes | 23c | 499.98$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8a…de2fbacked Yes | 20c | 498.02$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf772…dbf9backed Yes | 6c | 480.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 25c | 448.7$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.2 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…446dbacked Yes | 10c | 415.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed Yes | 15c | 398.81$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 21c | 388.89$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.91 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ff…4bb7backed Yes | 9c | 371.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf65d…02a5backed No | 72c | 348.18$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…5c87backed Yes | 25c | 330.2$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…e61cbacked Yes | 10c | 320.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98dd…1114backed Yes | 31c | 318.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…8215backed Yes | 32c | 315.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd7…6ee0backed Yes | 34c | 295.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b0…da45backed Yes | 9c | 278.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d2…80dcbacked Yes | 33c | 273.48$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9a…471fbacked Yes | 8c | 253.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…18c6backed Yes | 17c | 251.82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 24c | 251.49$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.47 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 11c | 251.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x006a…c0c4backed Yes | 10c | 244.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd27…2807backed Yes | 31c | 242.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.36 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 32cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 72c | 231.21$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.67 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 65c | 220$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…d08abacked Yes | 27c | 215.25$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d9…c572backed Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…750fbacked Yes | 17c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…2736backed Yes | 20c | 190$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb67a…07aebacked Yes | 16c | 172.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3829…dea6backed Yes | 7c | 171.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a1…5421backed Yes | 24c | 165.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb79e…da6ebacked Yes | 11c | 160.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 12c | 156$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 7c | 149.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 146.4$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes | 10c | 145.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -64%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3e…4eedbacked Yes | 22c | 136.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f27…d37ebacked No | 66c | 127.22$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.25 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 15c | 124.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…d88fbacked No | 49c | 122$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef0…6201backed No | 49c | 121$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6c…f41dbacked No | 49c | 121$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…80aebacked Yes | 13c | 120.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34ec…d0ecbacked No | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bb…7cf7backed Yes | 9c | 117$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c84…b783backed Yes | 17c | 116.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…1730backed No | 49c | 116$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4976…2861backed Yes | 51c | 115$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70d1…d18ebacked Yes | 51c | 115$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82fe…07e1backed Yes | 51c | 114$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2321…f18fbacked No | 49c | 114$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ae…7547backed Yes | 51c | 113$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x249d…0ad3backed Yes | 35c | 112.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab0c…efeebacked Yes | 51c | 112$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb752…c9f5backed No | 49c | 112$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a2…0cd0backed Yes | 51c | 110$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc92…fa3cbacked No | 49c | 110$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc404…8f4fbacked Yes | 16c | 108.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5441…645fbacked No | 49c | 108$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a85…c4d0backed Yes | 51c | 106$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23c4…e969backed Yes | 51c | 106$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb35c…78c5backed No | 49c | 102$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…e845backed Yes | 29c | 101.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f2…1519backed Yes | 51c | 101$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25de…7acfbacked Yes | 51c | 101$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ee…d185backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5a…c111backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…31e2backed Yes | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39e8…55e7backed Yes | 51c | 99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 22c | 97.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5ece…9bf9backed Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…f642backed Yes | 26c | 92.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the March Meeting?this page
- Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the March Meeting?Yes won
- Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the March Meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.